Georgia State Panthers at James Madison Dukes
Final · ESPNU
Model: GAST 23.82–33.62 JMU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2584215840
- Winner: James Madison (69%)
- Spread: GAST +10 covers (54%)
- Total: Under 57.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: GAST vs JMU
The model
How this number was built
GAST 23.82–33.62 JMU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexJMU +5.1 vs GAST -3.7 · pred margin +9.8
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +13.2 vs +1.8 · model JMU 39.0–17.9 GAST
- Home field+3.0 pts to JMU
- RecordJMU 7-0 · GAST 4-2
- Market priorBlended 68% toward JMU -7.5 / total 57.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 22 |
| JMU | 14 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 11:280–7
JC Evans 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- TDQ1 6:287–7
Lanear McCrary Jr. 1 Yd Run (Samer Layous Kick)
- TDQ1 5:387–14
Michael Scott 20 Yd pass from Camden Coleman (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- TDQ2 13:597–21
JC Evans 1 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- TDQ2 11:437–28
KD Mosley 19 Yd pass from Camden Coleman (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- FGQ2 3:4910–28
Samer Layous 33 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 2:1110–35
Seth Cromwell 3 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- TDQ3 11:5616–35
Rodshaun Dorsey 32 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- TDQ3 7:2716–42
George Pettaway 12 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
- TDQ4 7:1022–42
Ayden Pereira 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
- TDQ4 1:0022–49
Miles Halbert 22 Yd pass from JC Evans (Morgan Suarez Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| GAST | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cameran Brown #8 | 13/25 | 134 | 5.4 | 1 | 1 | 51.2 |
 Ayden Pereira #2 | 3/4 | 51 | 12.8 | 0 | 0 | 30.8 |
| Team | 16/29 | 185 | 6.4 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| GAST | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cameran Brown #8 | 9 | 71 | 7.9 | 0 | 17 |
 Dennis Murray Jr. #0 | 9 | 56 | 6.2 | 0 | 15 |
 Lanear McCrary Jr. #5 | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 1 | 7 |
 Xavier Butler #22 | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 |
 Qwantavius Wiggins #24 | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 | 8 |
Ayden Pereira #2 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Team | 37 | 188 | 5.1 | 2 | 17 |
Receiving
| GAST | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rodshaun Dorsey #9 | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 1 | 32 |
 Grant Hollier #85 | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 15 |
 DJ Riles #10 | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | 34 |
Dennis Murray Jr. #0 | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | 9 |
 Derrick Avery Jr. #13 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Avion McBride #81 | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 |
Lanear McCrary Jr. #5 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 16 | 185 | 11.6 | 1 | 34 |
Fumbles
| GAST | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Xavier Butler #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Malique Harrell #24 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Defense
| GAST | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaydon Hood #34 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Donovan Faria #13 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Darius Johnson Jr. #12 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaden Kelly #28 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Coby Owens #20 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Malique Harrell #24 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Derrick Maxey III #21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Keenan Nelson #16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tre Mittman #15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyson McCrary #32 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Deuce Lee #8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
X Xavier Esqillion #4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Alex Mullings #52 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Norwood #88 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Toby Bolton #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joseph Holt #17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Derrick Avery Jr. #13 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ty Snead #22 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Balint Vorosmarty #26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonah Reeder #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mandjou Berte #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kelze Howard #58 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eric Butler Jr. #9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kelan Butler #45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 62 | 44 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| GAST | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Stone #17 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 19 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 19 | 0 |
Kicking
| GAST | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Samer Layous #39 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 33 | 1/1 | 4 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 33 | 1/1 | 4 |
Punting
| GAST | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Christian Teeter #14 | 4 | 171 | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
| Team | 4 | 171 | 42.8 | 0 | 0 | 48 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| GAST | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 22 | 24 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 4-13 | 6-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 373 | 515 |
| Passing | 185 | 265 |
| Comp/Att | 16/29 | 17/27 |
| Yards per pass | 6.4 | 9.8 |
| Rushing | 188 | 250 |
| Rushing Attempts | 37 | 41 |
| Yards per rush | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Penalties | 7-40 | 8-85 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 30:09 | 29:51 |
GAST 23.86–33.59 JMU
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
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