San Diego FC at LA Galaxy
TV · Apple TV
SD 1.58–1.95 LA
Projected SD 1.58–1.95 LA · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: -1 pts of win %, +0.07 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
SD 1.58–1.95 LA · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseLA -0.1 off · SD +0.2 off, shrunk 79%
- Home field+0.3 goals to LA
- RecordLA 10-9-11 · SD 8-9-12
- Market priorBlended 61% toward LA +125 / total 3.5
Season leaders
- Anders Dreyergoals 12
- Anders Dreyergoalsleaders 12
- Marco Reusgoals 8
- Marco Reusgoalsleaders 8
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| SD | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -3 | -9 |
| Total Goals | 51 | 41 |
| Assists | 36 | 26 |
| Goals Against | 54 | 50 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- A. Dreyer · Anytime goalAnytime goal · SD+140
- E. Achouri · Anytime goalAnytime goal · SD+245
- S. Roberto · Anytime goalAnytime goal · LA+750
- M. Yoshida · Anytime goalAnytime goal · LA+1100