NHLSat 9:00 PM CTT-Mobile Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins at Vegas Golden Knights
TV · ESPN+
Sat 9:00 PM CT
Computer pick · Total
Under 6.5
54%
PIT 2.57–3.89 VGK
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Data-Driven Pick · J. Eichel Over 1.5 pts
+110
Pittsburgh Penguins
3-5-1 · L1
2.57
Projected
Vegas Golden Knights
7-2-0
3.89
PIT 24%Draw 14%VGK 62%
Projected PIT 2.57–3.89 VGK
DraftKingstap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
VGK win
65%
66% (no-vig)
Total
6.37
6.5
Gap: -1 pts of win %, -0.13 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
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