Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FC
90'+4' · Apple TV
Latest action: ATL attacking
Model: MIA 3.53–1.39 ATL · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: +4 pts of win %, +0.45 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
MIA 3.53–1.39 ATL · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseATL -0.2 off · MIA +0.8 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to ATL
- RecordATL 8-6-15 · MIA 14-10-5
- Market priorBlended 61% toward MIA -120 / total 3.5
- Live residual25% of pregame scoring still on the clock
MIA 3.53–1.39 ATL · 1.4 goals over 3.5
HitL. Messi · MIA
totalshots 5Micael · MIA
Pass 80G. Luján · MIA
defensiveinterventions 12D. St. Clair · MIA
SV 1A. Miranchuk · ATL
totalshots 3M. Amaro · ATL
Pass 44
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| ATL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 89'
Goal! Atlanta United 1, Inter Miami CF 3. Fafà Picault (Atlanta United) converts the penalty with a right footed shot to the bottom right corner.
- GOAL2H 60'
Goal! Atlanta United 0, Inter Miami CF 3. Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Luis Suárez following a fast break.
- GOAL2H 56'
Goal! Atlanta United 0, Inter Miami CF 2. Lionel Messi (Inter Miami CF) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal. Assisted by Germán Berterame.
- GOAL1H 45'
Goal! Atlanta United 0, Inter Miami CF 1. Germán Berterame (Inter Miami CF) header from very close range to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Luis Suárez.
Game leaders
Lionel Messitotalshots 5
MicaelPass 80- Gonzalo Lujándefensiveinterventions 12
Dayne St. ClairSV 1
- Alexey Miranchuktotalshots 3
- Mauricio AmaroPass 44
- Paulo Díazdefensiveinterventions 9
- Lucas HoyosSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MIA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 9 | 8 |
| Yellow Cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 6 |
| Saves | 1 | 2 |
| Possession | 56.4 | 43.6 |
| SHOTS | 7 | 19 |
| ON GOAL | 5 | 2 |
| On Target % | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 1 |
| Accurate Passes | 489 | 356 |
| Passes | 545 | 400 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 2 | 4 |
| Crosses | 5 | 25 |
| Cross % | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 52 | 34 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 42 | 29 |
| Long Balls % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 7 |
| Effective Tackles | 3 | 9 |
| Tackles | 8 | 13 |
| Tackle % | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 9 |
| Effective Clearances | 20 | 9 |
| Clearances | 20 | 9 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- R. De Paul · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIA+700