NCAAFSat 9:30 PM CTSnapdragon Stadium
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Diego State Aztecs
TV · CBSSN
Sat 9:30 PM CT
Computer pick · Total
Over 46.5
51%
FRES 26.76–20.29 SDSU
Fresno State Bulldogs
4-2
26.76
Projected
San Diego State Aztecs
2-4
20.29
FRES 66%SDSU 34%
Projected FRES 26.76–20.29 SDSU
DraftKingstap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
FRES -5.3
FRES -7.0
Total
48.2
46.5
Gap: +1.7 margin, +1.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
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