Toronto FC at Red Bull New York
90'+5' · Apple TV
Latest action: TOR attacking
Model: TOR 2.39–0.49 RBNY · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: -16 pts of win %, +0.05 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
TOR 2.39–0.49 RBNY · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseRBNY -0.1 off · TOR +0.1 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to RBNY
- RecordRBNY 10-6-13 · TOR 7-12-10
- Market priorBlended 61% toward RBNY -150 / total 3.5
- Live residual25% of pregame scoring still on the clock
TOR 2.39–0.49 RBNY · 0.6 goals under 3.5
N. Dorsch · TOR
totalshots 2J. Osorio · TOR
Pass 27L. Gavran · TOR
SV 3J. Hall · RBNY
totalshots 4J. Bazán · RBNY
Pass 84E. Horvath · RBNY
SV 3
Line score
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| RBNY | 0 | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL2H 82'
Goal! New York Red Bulls 0, Toronto FC 2. Dániel Sallói (Toronto FC) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Jonathan Osorio following a fast break.
- OWN GOAL1H 3'
Own Goal by Justin Che, New York Red Bulls. New York Red Bulls 0, Toronto FC 1.
Game leaders
- Niklas Dorschtotalshots 2
Jonathan OsorioPass 27- Jonathan Osoriodefensiveinterventions 15
- Luka GavranSV 3
- Julian Halltotalshots 4
- Julián BazánPass 84
- Julián Bazándefensiveinterventions 12
- Ethan HorvathSV 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TOR | RBNY | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 15 | 14 |
| Yellow Cards | 3 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 1 | 3 |
| Corner Kicks | 1 | 7 |
| Saves | 3 | 3 |
| Possession | 32.5 | 67.5 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 15 |
| ON GOAL | 4 | 4 |
| On Target % | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 176 | 440 |
| Passes | 249 | 510 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 3 |
| Crosses | 7 | 20 |
| Cross % | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Long Balls | 63 | 30 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 31 | 16 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Blocked Shots | 1 | 3 |
| Effective Tackles | 12 | 16 |
| Tackles | 20 | 19 |
| Tackle % | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 16 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 33 | 17 |
| Clearances | 33 | 17 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- E. Choupo-Moting · Anytime goalAnytime goal · RBNY+105
- J. Ruvalcaba · Anytime goalAnytime goal · RBNY+145
- N. Dorsch · Anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+800
- J. Osorio · Anytime goalAnytime goal · TOR+1200