CF Montréal at Seattle Sounders FC
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MTL 0.97–2.29 SEA
Projected MTL 0.97–2.29 SEA · most likely 0–2
Model vs market
Gap: -11 pts of win %, -0.61 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
MTL 0.97–2.29 SEA · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseSEA -0.1 off · MTL -0.2 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to SEA
- RecordSEA 11-8-10 · MTL 6-6-17
- Market priorBlended 61% toward SEA -280 / total 3.5
Season leaders
- Prince Owusugoals 15
- Prince Owusugoalsleaders 15
- Paul Rothrockgoals 5
- Paul Rothrockgoalsleaders 5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| MTL | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -24 | 2 |
| Total Goals | 35 | 38 |
| Assists | 22 | 27 |
| Goals Against | 59 | 36 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- C. Roldan · Anytime goalAnytime goal · SEA+450
- N. Tolo · Anytime goalAnytime goal · SEA+2000