NCAAFSat 9:30 PM CTClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
New Mexico Lobos at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
TV · FS1
Sat 9:30 PM CT
Computer pick · Spread
UNM -14.5
53%
UNM 31.01–16.35 HAW
New Mexico Lobos
4-1 · computer pick
31.01
Projected
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
1-5
16.35
UNM 82%HAW 18%
Projected UNM 31.01–16.35 HAW
DraftKingstap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
UNM -15.0
UNM -14.5
Total
49.2
46.5
Gap: -0.5 margin, +2.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
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