NCAAFQ3 3:08McLane Stadium
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
Q3 3:08 · FS1
LiveUpdates as plays come in
3rd & 6
at BAY 44 · TCU ball
Q3 3:08
TCU
4 plays, 42 yards, 1:06BAY
Last play. J.Craig rush right for 3 yards gain to the BAYLOR44, out of bounds at BAYLOR44
TCU Horned Frogs
2-3
17
Live
Q3 3:08
Baylor Bears
4-1 · computer pick
6
TCU 86%BAY 14%
Model: TCU 24.06–14.26 BAY · live-adjusted
DraftKingsLiveas of 8:37 PM CT · tap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
BAY -4.9
BAY -3.5
Total
51.1
50.5
Gap: +1.4 margin, +0.6 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TCU vs BAY
Computer pick · Spread
BAY -6
51%
TCU 24.06–14.26 BAY · TCU by 13.3 pts vs the number
Live stats
Jaden Craig · TCU
19/31 C/ATT · 281 YDSDJ Lagway · BAY
11/29 C/ATT · 134 YDSLandon Walker · TCU
3 CAR · 16 YDSCaden Knighten · BAY
8 CAR · 29 YDSJordan Dwyer · TCU
6 REC · 150 YDSGavin Freeman · BAY
5 REC · 62 YDS
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | 7 | 0 | 10 | 17 |
| BAY | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| TCU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaden Craig #1 | 19/31 | 281 | 9.1 | 2 | 1 | — |
Rushing
| TCU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Landon Walker #27 | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 9 |
 Jon Denman #2 | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 4 |
 Kari Ashley #81 | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 | 6 |
Receiving
| TCU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jordan Dwyer #7 | 6 | 150 | 25.0 | 0 | 67 |
 Ed Small #18 | 5 | 78 | 15.6 | 1 | 31 |
Kari Ashley #81 | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 13 |
Defense
| TCU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Koron Hayward #16 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Max Carroll #3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Paul Oyewale #97 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |