Northern Iowa Panthers at Youngstown State Penguins
Final · ESPN+
Model: UNI 20.84–38.58 YSU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3687705593
- Winner: Youngstown St (84%)
- Spread: UNI +18.5 covers (56%)
- Total: Under 59.5 (52%)
- Score error (both teams)3
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: UNI vs YSU
The model
How this number was built
UNI 20.84–38.58 YSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Gaussian scoring from shrunk offensive/defensive ratings plus a market prior.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.5 vs -3.7 · model YSU 29.8–24.7 UNI
- Home field+3.0 pts to YSU
- RecordYSU 6-2 · UNI 3-3
- Market priorBlended 82% toward YSU -20.5 / total 60.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNI | 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 22 |
| YSU | 14 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 35 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 14:480–7
Donald Barksdale 93 Yd Kickoff Return (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
- TDQ1 4:390–14
Antuan Gardner 2 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
- TDQ2 14:510–21
Lynn Wyche-El 42 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
- TDQ2 7:240–28
Beau Brungard 1 Yd Run (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
- TDQ2 0:567–28
Kai Black 24 Yd pass from Jaxon Dailey (Max Bartachek Kick)
- TDQ3 10:3113–28
Brady McCullough 16 Yd pass from Jaxon Dailey (Max Bartachek PAT blocked)
- FGQ3 5:3016–28
Max Bartachek 45 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 14:5316–35
Bryan Hunt 16 Yd pass from Beau Brungard (Andrew Lastovka Kick)
- TDQ4 3:5922–35
Ayden Price 17 Yd pass from Jaxon Dailey (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| UNI | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaxon Dailey #15 | 28/49 | 318 | 6.5 | 3 | 0 | — |
| Team | 28/49 | 318 | 6.5 | 3 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| UNI | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Ben Gordon #14 | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 0 | 27 |
C Christian Collins #22 | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 6 |
 Xavier Terrell #5 | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | 4 |
M Michael Bormann #43 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
Jaxon Dailey #15 | 9 | -12 | -1.3 | 0 | 6 |
| Team | 23 | 53 | 2.3 | 0 | 27 |
Receiving
| UNI | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kai Black #17 | 3 | 74 | 24.7 | 1 | 36 |
B Ben Gordon #14 | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 | 29 |
J Jaiden Ellis-Lahey #6 | 3 | 36 | 12.0 | 0 | 15 |
 Ayden Price #2 | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 1 | 17 |
 Taj Hughes #25 | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | 16 |
B Brady McCullough #18 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 | 16 |
Xavier Terrell #5 | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 13 |
Z Zach Mehmert #42 | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 14 |
T Tay Norman #4 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
C Cyrus Courtney #16 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
Jaxon Dailey #15 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 28 | 318 | 11.4 | 3 | 36 |
Fumbles
| UNI | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Jaxon Dailey #15 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Defense
| UNI | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C Calvin Jaworski #21 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J John Powers #33 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I Isaiah Pinks #8 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B Braden McShane #36 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
K Kolben Miller #10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jordan McClom #1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mekhi Toms #3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
F Franz Reisz #40 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Wade #45 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Andrew Price #6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jaylen Pettus #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gene Blalock #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
H Hyson Bey-Buie #50 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
A Anthony Isley #35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Jackson Stortz #92 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
J Josiah Young #4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 66 | 38 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Kick returns
| UNI | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B Ben Gordon #14 | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 20 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 20 | 0 |
Punt returns
| UNI | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S Sutton Koller #80 | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 11 | 0 |
Kicking
| UNI | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
M Max Bartachek #0 | 1/2 | 50.0 | 45 | 1/2 | 4 |
| Team | 1/2 | 50.0 | 45 | 1/2 | 4 |
Punting
| UNI | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L Logan Gregory #2 | 2 | 86 | 43.0 | 1 | 0 | 50 |
| Team | 2 | 86 | 43.0 | 1 | 0 | 50 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| UNI | YSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 28 | 25 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-16 | 6-9 |
| 4th down efficiency | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 371 | 420 |
| Passing | 318 | 240 |
| Comp/Att | 28/49 | 23/27 |
| Yards per pass | 6.5 | 8.9 |
| Rushing | 53 | 180 |
| Rushing Attempts | 23 | 37 |
| Yards per rush | 2.3 | 4.9 |
| Penalties | 3-15 | 8-90 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 0 |
| Possession | 30:19 | 29:41 |
UNI 20.84–38.58 YSU
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.