Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
End 5th · TBS
0 outs · Bases empty
Last ball in play · Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
Last play. End of the 5th inning
Model: TB 3.01–2.51 CLE · live-adjusted
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Partly Cloudy · 46° · 5 mph
Model vs market
Gap: +2 pts of win %, +1.77 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2026, 9,733 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2448 vs old model 0.2486. No free archive of MLB closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. A plate-appearance model (team batting vs starter/bullpen rates through a base-out run-expectancy solve) was tested and didn't beat this one, so it is not used.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TB vs CLE
TB 3.01–2.51 CLE · 1.5 runs under 7
Prop Player
Player Over 0.5 StatY. Diaz · TB
1-3 H-AB · 3 ABS. Kwan · CLE
1-2 H-AB · 2 ABN. Martinez · TB
5.0 IP · 2 HS. Armstrong · CLE
1.0 IPFoster Griffin · CLE
PITCHING · 3.2 IP · 4 H · 1 R · 1 ER
Line score
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | R | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Batting
| TB | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K | #P | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Y. Diaz DH | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | .250 | .276 | .357 |
 J. Aranda 1B | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .208 | .269 | .333 |
 C. Simpson LF | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | .176 | .176 | .294 |
Pitching
| TB | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR | PC-ST | ERA | PC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Martinez SP | 5.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 71-50 | 3.12 | 71 |