Colorado Rapids at Portland Timbers
TV · Apple TV
COL 1.25–1.61 POR
Projected COL 1.25–1.61 POR · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: -13 pts of win %, +0.90 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
COL 1.25–1.61 POR · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defensePOR +0.2 off · COL -0.0 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to POR
- RecordPOR 9-6-14 · COL 11-5-13
- Market priorBlended 61% toward POR -115 / total 2.5
Season leaders
Paxten Aaronsongoals 7- Paxten Aaronsongoalsleaders 7
- Kristoffer Veldegoals 8
- Kristoffer Veldegoalsleaders 8
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| COL | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 0 | -5 |
| Total Goals | 41 | 51 |
| Assists | 27 | 37 |
| Goals Against | 41 | 56 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- V. Janssen · Anytime goalAnytime goal · POR+140
- I. Sadiq · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COL+275
- M. Whittaker · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COL+290
- J. Waterman · Anytime goalAnytime goal · POR+1400