Nashville SC at San Jose Earthquakes
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NSH 1.99–1.47 SJ
Projected NSH 1.99–1.47 SJ · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: +5 pts of win %, -0.11 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
NSH 1.99–1.47 SJ · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseSJ +0.3 off · NSH +0.7 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to SJ
- RecordSJ 13-8-8 · NSH 20-6-3
- Market priorBlended 61% toward NSH -120 / total 3.5
Season leaders
- Sam Surridgegoals 17
- Sam Surridgegoalsleaders 17
Preston Juddgoals 15- Preston Juddgoalsleaders 15
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| NSH | SJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 41 | 10 |
| Total Goals | 63 | 51 |
| Assists | 43 | 38 |
| Goals Against | 22 | 41 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- E. Saad · Anytime goalAnytime goal · NSH+380