FC Dallas at Houston Dynamo FC
HT · Apple TV
Latest action: DAL attacking
Model: DAL 1.91–1.16 HOU · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: -11 pts of win %, +0.68 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
DAL 1.91–1.16 HOU · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseHOU -0.0 off · DAL +0.3 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to HOU
- RecordHOU 13-7-9 · DAL 14-8-7
- Market priorBlended 61% toward HOU +100 / total 2.5
- Live residual75% of pregame scoring still on the clock
DAL 1.91–1.16 HOU · 0.6 goals over 2.5
B. Kamungo · DAL
totalshots 1S. Moore · DAL
Pass 19F. Negri · HOU
totalshots 1H. Herrera · HOU
Pass 59A. Resch · HOU
defensiveinterventions 5J. Bond · HOU
SV 2
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 1 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 12'
Goal! Houston Dynamo FC 0, FC Dallas 1. Christian Cappis (FC Dallas) left footed shot from the left side of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by Daniel Job.
Game leaders
Bernard Kamungototalshots 1
Shaq MoorePass 19- Bernard Kamungodefensiveinterventions 9
Franco Negritotalshots 1
Héctor HerreraPass 59- Agustín Reschdefensiveinterventions 5
Jonathan BondSV 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| DAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 10 | 4 |
| Yellow Cards | 0 | 2 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks | 0 | 2 |
| Saves | 0 | 2 |
| Possession | 34.7 | 65.3 |
| SHOTS | 4 | 2 |
| ON GOAL | 2 | 0 |
| On Target % | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 1 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 140 | 295 |
| Passes | 181 | 338 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Accurate Crosses | 1 | 1 |
| Crosses | 2 | 7 |
| Cross % | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Long Balls | 25 | 21 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 12 | 8 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Blocked Shots | 0 | 1 |
| Effective Tackles | 7 | 4 |
| Tackles | 8 | 5 |
| Tackle % | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 4 |
| Effective Clearances | 10 | 6 |
| Clearances | 10 | 6 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- P. Musa · Anytime goalAnytime goal · DAL+155
- L. Foster · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HOU+210
- M. Saracchi · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HOU+1700