Vancouver Whitecaps at Austin FC
HT · Apple TV
Latest action: ATX attacking
Model: VAN 1.79–1.80 ATX · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: +7 pts of win %, -0.13 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
VAN 1.79–1.80 ATX · Medium confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseATX -0.1 off · VAN +0.6 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to ATX
- RecordATX 7-10-12 · VAN 15-7-7
- Market priorBlended 61% toward VAN -200 / total 3.5
- Live residual75% of pregame scoring still on the clock
VAN 1.79–1.80 ATX · 0.1 goals over 3.5
B. Caicedo · VAN
totalshots 3T. Blackmon · VAN
Pass 48A. Cubas · VAN
defensiveinterventions 6M. Uzuni · ATX
totalshots 1O. Svatok · ATX
Pass 33B. Stuver · ATX
SV 1
Line score
| 1H | T | |
|---|---|---|
| VAN | 0 | 0 |
| ATX | 1 | 1 |
How the goals went in
- GOAL1H 40'
Goal! Austin FC 1, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0. Myrto Uzuni (Austin FC) left footed shot from the centre of the box to the centre of the goal.
Game leaders
- Bruno Caicedototalshots 3
Tristan BlackmonPass 48
Andrés Cubasdefensiveinterventions 6
- Myrto Uzunitotalshots 1
- Oleksandr SvatokPass 33
- Oleksandr Svatokdefensiveinterventions 11
Brad StuverSV 1
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| VAN | ATX | |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls | 7 | 3 |
| Yellow Cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red Cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks | 2 | 1 |
| Saves | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 66.2 | 33.8 |
| SHOTS | 6 | 1 |
| ON GOAL | 1 | 1 |
| On Target % | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Penalty Goals | 0 | 0 |
| Penalty Kicks Taken | 0 | 0 |
| Accurate Passes | 306 | 131 |
| Passes | 340 | 175 |
| Pass Completion % | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Accurate Crosses | 3 | 0 |
| Crosses | 11 | 1 |
| Cross % | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Long Balls | 20 | 29 |
| Accurate Long Balls | 10 | 8 |
| Long Balls % | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Blocked Shots | 2 | 0 |
| Effective Tackles | 4 | 3 |
| Tackles | 5 | 8 |
| Tackle % | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 5 |
| Effective Clearances | 2 | 16 |
| Clearances | 2 | 16 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- M. Uzuni · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+340
- F. Torres · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+475
- P. Placheta · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+750
- Rui Modesto · Anytime goalAnytime goal · VAN+1000
- O. Svatok · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATX+2500