NCAAFQ3 5:55Hard Rock Stadium
Florida State Seminoles at #3 Miami Hurricanes
Q3 5:55 · ESPN
LiveUpdates as plays come in
Timeout
at MIA 47 · MIA ball
Q3 5:55
FSU
5 plays, 45 yards, 2:21MIA
Last play. Timeout Miami, clock 05:55
Florida State Seminoles
3-3
14
Live
Q3 5:55
#3Miami Hurricanes
5-0
14
FSU 23%MIA 77%
Model: FSU 20.31–27.44 MIA · live-adjusted
DraftKingsLiveas of 8:32 PM CT · tap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
MIA -20.4
MIA -20.5
Total
54.8
57.5
Gap: -0.1 margin, -2.7 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: FSU vs MIA
Computer pick · Total
Over 56.5
51%
FSU 20.31–27.44 MIA · 8.8 pts under 56.5
Live stats
Ashton Daniels · FSU
6/14 C/ATT · 117 YDSDarian Mensah · MIA
14/22 C/ATT · 187 YDSOusmane Kromah · FSU
14 CAR · 44 YDSJavian Mallory · MIA
5 CAR · 54 YDSJasen Lopez · FSU
1 REC · 39 YDSMalachi Toney · MIA
7 REC · 84 YDS
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| MIA | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| FSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ashton Daniels #14 | 6/14 | 117 | 8.4 | 1 | 0 | — |
 Kevin Sperry #9 | 1/2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| FSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ousmane Kromah #32 | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 | 11 |
Ashton Daniels #14 | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 1 | 14 |
 Quintrevion Wisner #5 | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 | 16 |
Receiving
| FSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jasen Lopez #7 | 1 | 39 | 39.0 | 0 | 39 |
 Desirrio Riles #6 | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 1 | 23 |
 Duce Robinson #0 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 14 |
Defense
| FSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ashlynd Barker #7 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Jones #10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Lyons #5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |