MLSLive 45'+4'Sporting Park

Real Salt Lake at Sporting Kansas City

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Latest action: RSL attacking

Real Salt Lake

9-6-14

Form DLWLL · 42 PF · 47 PA

Live

Sporting Kansas City

6-4-19

Form DDLWL · 35 PF · 72 PA

RSL 61%Draw 15%SKC 23%

Model: RSL 3.52–2.12 SKC · live-adjusted

DraftKingsLiveas of 8:36 PM CT · tap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

SKC win

38%

43% (no-vig)

Total

3.53

3.5

Gap: -5 pts of win %, +0.03 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

RSL 3.52–2.12 SKC · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
SKC -0.2 off · RSL -0.0 off, shrunk 78%
Home field
+0.3 goals to SKC
Record
SKC 6-4-19 · RSL 9-6-14
Market prior
Blended 61% toward RSL +115 / total 3.5
Live residual
75% of pregame scoring still on the clock

Full write-up of the model

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

53%

RSL 3.52–2.12 SKC · 2.1 goals over 3.5

Live stats

M. Guilavogui · RSL
totalshots 3
S. Spierings · RSL
Pass 37
N. Caliskan · RSL
defensiveinterventions 6
T. Calheira · SKC
totalshots 2
E. Karic · SKC
Pass 36
J. Miller · SKC
defensiveinterventions 9

Line score

	1H	T
RSL	2	2
SKC	1	1

How the goals went in

GOAL1H 26'
Goal! Sporting Kansas City 1, Real Salt Lake 2. Taylor Calheira (Sporting Kansas City) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the top right corner. Assisted by André Luiz following a fast break.
GOAL1H 14'
Goal! Sporting Kansas City 0, Real Salt Lake 2. Sergi Solans (Real Salt Lake) right footed shot from the centre of the box to the bottom right corner.
GOAL1H 11'
Goal! Sporting Kansas City 0, Real Salt Lake 1. Morgan Guilavogui (Real Salt Lake) right footed shot from the left side of the six yard box to the bottom right corner. Assisted by Noel Caliskan.

Game leaders

Morgan Guilavogui
totalshots 3
Stijn Spierings
Pass 37
Noel Caliskan
defensiveinterventions 6

Taylor Calheira
totalshots 2
Emir Karic
Pass 36
Jansen Miller
defensiveinterventions 9
Stefan Cleveland
SV 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RSL	SKC
Fouls	4	6
Yellow Cards	1	0
Red Cards	0	0
Offsides	0	2
Corner Kicks	3	4
Saves	0	3
Possession	54.7	45.3
SHOTS	9	5
ON GOAL	5	1
On Target %	0.6	0.2
Penalty Goals	0	0
Penalty Kicks Taken	0	0
Accurate Passes	260	206
Passes	294	241
Pass Completion %	0.9	0.9
Accurate Crosses	2	1
Crosses	11	11
Cross %	0.2	0.1
Long Balls	23	34
Accurate Long Balls	13	20
Long Balls %	0.6	0.6
Blocked Shots	1	2
Effective Tackles	6	3
Tackles	8	3
Tackle %	0.8	1.0
Interceptions	1	7
Effective Clearances	12	10
Clearances	12	10

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

T. Booth · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSL
+275
L. de Fougerolles · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSL
+1300
E. Karic · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SKC
+2000
Z. Bassong · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SKC
+2000