NCAAFQ4 13:10M. M. Roberts Stadium
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Q4 13:10 · ESPN+
LiveUpdates as plays come in
Between plays
RED ZONEat USM 3 · ARST ball
Q4 13:10
ARST
8 plays, 69 yards, 2:38USM
Last play. (C. Van Andel KICK)
Arkansas State Red Wolves
2-4
23
Live
Q4 13:10
RED ZONE
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
1-4 · computer pick
7
ARST 99%USM 1%
Model: ARST 30.00–13.23 USM · live-adjusted
DraftKingsLiveas of 8:32 PM CT · tap to log
ML
ARST—
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
USM -0.8
ARST -5.5
Total
57.7
61.5
Gap: +6.3 margin, -3.8 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ARST vs USM
Computer pick · Spread
USM +7
55%
ARST 30.00–13.23 USM · ARST by 11.3 pts vs the number
Player stats
The box score has not posted yet.