NCAAFQ3 0:09FirstBank Stadium
Arkansas Razorbacks at Vanderbilt Commodores
Q3 0:09 · ESPN2
LiveUpdates as plays come in
Kickoff
RED ZONEat VAN 3 · ARK ball
Q3 0:09
ARK
5 plays, 53 yards, 1:32VAN
TOUCHDOWNLast play. C.Settles rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Vandy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:09
Arkansas Razorbacks
2-4 · computer pick
27
Live
Q3 0:09
RED ZONE
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-3
21
ARK 70%VAN 30%
Model: ARK 32.54–28.29 VAN · live-adjusted
DraftKingsLiveas of 8:37 PM CT · tap to log
ML
Spread
Total
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
VAN -9.9
VAN -5.5
Total
55.6
48.5
Gap: +4.4 margin, +7.1 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: ARK vs VAN
Computer pick · Spread
ARK +6
52%
ARK 32.54–28.29 VAN · ARK by 9.8 pts vs the number
Live stats
KJ Jackson · ARK
17/26 C/ATT · 207 YDSJared Curtis · VAN
12/20 C/ATT · 190 YDSMakhilyn Young · VAN
7 CAR · 39 YDSAntonio Jordan · ARK
4 REC · 67 YDSJunior Sherrill · VAN
5 REC · 63 YDSShelton Lewis · ARK
5 TOT · 3 SOLO
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK | 0 | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| VAN | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 |
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| ARK | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | adjQBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KJ Jackson #7 | 17/26 | 207 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | — |
Rushing
| ARK | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KJ Jackson #7 | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 1 | 20 |
 Cam Settles #27 | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 2 | 11 |
 Braylen Russell #0 | 9 | 36 | 4.0 | 0 | 13 |
Receiving
| ARK | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Antonio Jordan #19 | 4 | 67 | 16.8 | 0 | 32 |
 Monte Harrison #11 | 1 | 37 | 37.0 | 0 | 37 |
 Chris Marshall #6 | 1 | 28 | 28.0 | 0 | 28 |
Defense
| ARK | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shelton Lewis #2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ja'Quavion Smith #25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Miguel Mitchell #24 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |