NCAAFQ4 14:57Seibert Stadium
Mercer Bears at Samford Bulldogs
Q4 14:57 · ESPN+
LiveUpdates as plays come in
Kickoff
RED ZONEat SAM 11 · MER ball
Q4 14:57
MER
8 plays, 29 yards, 3:48SAM
Last play. S.Zeidan field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: K.Arnold, LS: J.Hamilton), clock 14:57
Mercer Bears
5-2
31
Live
Q4 14:57
RED ZONE
Samford Bulldogs
1-5 · computer pick
14
MER 99%SAM 1%
Model: MER 38.68–18.65 SAM · live-adjusted
DraftKingsLiveas of 8:37 PM CT · tap to log
ML
Locked
Spread
Locked
Total
Locked
Model vs market
Our model
DraftKings
Spread
SAM -2.5
MER -15.5
Total
53.9
48.5
Gap: +18.0 margin, +5.4 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2025 (FBS), 2,629 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.1762 vs old model 0.1964. No free archive of college closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: MER vs SAM
Computer pick · Spread
SAM +13.5
57%
MER 38.68–18.65 SAM · MER by 4.5 pts vs the number
Player stats
The box score has not posted yet.