New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs
0:13 - 3rd · ESPN+
Recent shots · 5 goals (G)
Last play. Jack Roslovic saved by Ilya Sorokin
Model: NYI 4.11–1.15 TOR · live-adjusted
Model vs market
Gap: -8 pts of win %, -0.30 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: NYI vs TOR
NYI 4.11–1.15 TOR · 1.2 goals under 6.5
Prop Player
Player Over 0.5 StatC. Cizikas · NYI
2 HTT. Blueger · TOR
1 HTT. DeAngelo · NYI
DefensesN. Blankenburg · TOR
1 HTI. Sorokin · NYI
1 GA · 28 SA
Line score
| P1 | P2 | P3 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |