Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons
Final/OT · ESPN+
Model: BALL 19.92–26.82 BGSU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 4094392159
- Winner: Bowling Green (63%)
- Spread: BALL +6.5 covers (52%)
- Total: Over 47.5 (58%)
- Score error (both teams)14
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: BALL vs BGSU
The model
How this number was built
BALL 19.92–26.82 BGSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexBGSU -16.7 vs BALL -21.6 · pred margin +6.9
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -4.0 vs -8.7 · model BGSU 29.7–19.2 BALL
- Home field+3.0 pts to BGSU
- RecordBGSU 2-5 · BALL 2-5
- Market priorBlended 67% toward BGSU -6 / total 46.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALL | 3 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 32 |
| BGSU | 0 | 10 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 31 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 3:213–0
Brody Boehm 39 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 7:0710–0
TJ Horton 8 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)
- TDQ2 6:5010–7
Brennan Ridley 77 Yd pass from Jay Kastantin (Travis Kenner Kick)
- FGQ2 0:4910–10
Travis Kenner 49 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 3:1917–10
Keldric Luster 28 Yd Run (Brody Boehm Kick)
- TDQ4 1:1217–17
Eli Jacon-Duffy 6 Yd pass from Jay Kastantin (Travis Kenner Kick)
- TDQ4 1:0117–24
D'kyah Banks 35 Yd Fumble Return (Travis Kenner Kick)
- TDQ4 0:0024–24
Eli Hohlt 20 Yd pass from Keldric Luster (Brody Boehm Kick)
- TDOT 0:0024–31
Austyn Dendy 4 Yd Run (Travis Kenner Kick)
- TDOT 0:0032–31
TJ Horton 1 Yd Run (Keldric Luster Pass to Alex Scherle for Two-Point Conversion)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| BALL | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Keldric Luster #6 | 16/24 | 195 | 8.1 | 1 | 0 | 71.7 |
| Team | 16/24 | 195 | 8.1 | 1 | 0 | -- |
Rushing
| BALL | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keldric Luster #6 | 17 | 125 | 7.4 | 1 | 28 |
 TJ Horton #4 | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 2 | 18 |
 Jalen Bonds #2 | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 | 5 |
 Jamarion McDougle #10 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
 Johnny Thompson Jr. #3 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 42 | 240 | 5.7 | 3 | 28 |
Receiving
| BALL | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CJ Nelson #7 | 6 | 59 | 9.8 | 0 | 23 |
 Isaiah Thacker #11 | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | 29 |
Jamarion McDougle #10 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 | 22 |
 Eli Hohlt #83 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 | 20 |
Jalen Bonds #2 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 15 |
TJ Horton #4 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
Johnny Thompson Jr. #3 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Team | 16 | 195 | 12.2 | 1 | 29 |
Fumbles
| BALL | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Keldric Luster #6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defense
| BALL | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Gavin Forsha #27 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cincear Lewis #6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mikeah Webster #25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Anthony Pinnace #14 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ameir Glenn #56 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Lucas Szymborski #26 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kaleb Stewart #16 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Layton Starks #11 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kamron Chamble #13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quentavius Scandrett #2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deondre Shepherd #12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Chris Jackson #5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Yates #4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Marsh #7 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Austin Stief #10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ka'Shawn Thomas #94 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Brody Boehm #38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Justin Thomas #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 65 | 37 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Interceptions
| BALL | INT | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
Will Yates #4 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Team | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Kick returns
| BALL | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TJ Horton #4 | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 26 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 26 | 0 |
Kicking
| BALL | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brody Boehm #38 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 39 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 39 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| BALL | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cole Stumbaugh #32 | 4 | 164 | 41.0 | 1 | 0 | 56 |
| Team | 4 | 164 | 41.0 | 1 | 0 | 56 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| BALL | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 23 | 18 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 5-12 | 5-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Total Yards | 435 | 313 |
| Passing | 195 | 215 |
| Comp/Att | 16/24 | 17/24 |
| Yards per pass | 8.1 | 9.0 |
| Rushing | 240 | 98 |
| Rushing Attempts | 42 | 35 |
| Yards per rush | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| Penalties | 6-57 | 5-60 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 0 | 1 |
| Possession | 30:15 | 29:45 |
BALL 19.93–26.81 BGSU
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
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