Florida Atlantic Owls at Army Black Knights
Final · CBSSN
Model: FAU 25.70–29.75 ARMY
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 790703342
- Winner: Army (54%)
- Spread: ARMY -1.5 covers (53%)
- Total: Under 55.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)30
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: FAU vs ARMY
The model
How this number was built
FAU 25.70–29.75 ARMY · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexARMY -2.8 vs FAU -7.5 · pred margin +4.1
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +3.7 vs +1.8 · model ARMY 30.6–24.4 FAU
- Home field+3.0 pts to ARMY
- RecordARMY 4-2 · FAU 4-2
- Market priorBlended 68% toward ARMY -2.5 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAU | 14 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 24 |
| ARMY | 14 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 56 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 14:380–7
Samari Howard 30 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ1 11:507–7
Easton Messer 24 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
- TDQ1 8:427–14
Cale Hellums 58 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ1 5:3314–14
Kelby Valsin 34 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
- TDQ2 14:1914–21
Cale Hellums 4 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ2 1:1814–28
Cale Hellums 2 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ2 0:2514–35
Cale Hellums 3 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ3 13:2614–42
Jake Rendina 61 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- FGQ3 6:0217–42
Collin Rogers 41 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:4417–49
Cale Hellums 1 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
- TDQ4 9:4824–49
Tucker Holloway 19 Yd pass from Caden Veltkamp (Collin Rogers Kick)
- TDQ4 1:4824–56
Bryson Luter 69 Yd Run (Dawson Jones Kick)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| FAU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Caden Veltkamp #10 | 33/48 | 318 | 6.6 | 3 | 1 | 62.4 |
 Drew Devillier #18 | 1/1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
| Team | 34/49 | 324 | 6.6 | 3 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| FAU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ethan Ervin #21 | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | 11 |
 Leonard Farrow #5 | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | 15 |
 Kaden Shields-Dutton #28 | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Brady Tillman III #22 | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | 11 |
Team | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Caden Veltkamp #10 | 3 | -17 | -5.7 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 28 | 108 | 3.9 | 0 | 15 |
Receiving
| FAU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Easton Messer #8 | 14 | 102 | 7.3 | 1 | 24 |
 Kelby Valsin #2 | 7 | 89 | 12.7 | 1 | 34 |
 Dominique Henry #9 | 4 | 57 | 14.3 | 0 | 21 |
 Tucker Holloway #3 | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 1 | 19 |
 Branden Hoch #0 | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 | 11 |
Ethan Ervin #21 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Antojuan Woody #4 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Kaden Shields-Dutton #28 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
Leonard Farrow #5 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 34 | 324 | 9.5 | 3 | 34 |
Fumbles
| FAU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Team | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Dominique Henry #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Defense
| FAU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blake Burris #98 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Joseph Sipp Jr. #18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Travis Jackson #27 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Damon Allen #0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Deshaun Batiste #5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenyon Garner #31 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Leon Hart Jr. #6 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Earl Miller Jr. #13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Tyson Rooks #19 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bo Simpson-Nealy #20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JK Johnson #23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jay Crable #12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ahlston Ware #24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 CJ Doggette Jr. #1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jayden Sweeney #22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jonathan Bax #9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Nate Fischer #21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Khmari Johnson #7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Gavench Marcelin #11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Amar Reynolds #26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Enyce Sledge #62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Wilky Denaud #2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh Roberts #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 73 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Kick returns
| FAU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dominique Henry #9 | 4 | 106 | 26.5 | 46 | 0 |
Ethan Ervin #21 | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 20 | 0 |
Leonard Farrow #5 | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 13 | 0 |
Josh Roberts #10 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Team | 7 | 149 | 21.3 | 46 | 0 |
Kicking
| FAU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Collin Rogers #41 | 1/3 | 33.0 | 41 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/3 | 33.3 | 41 | 3/3 | 6 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| FAU | ARMY | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 28 | 22 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 10-14 | 7-12 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 4-4 |
| Total Yards | 432 | 481 |
| Passing | 324 | 2 |
| Comp/Att | 34/49 | 1/2 |
| Yards per pass | 6.6 | 1.0 |
| Rushing | 108 | 479 |
| Rushing Attempts | 28 | 60 |
| Yards per rush | 3.9 | 8.0 |
| Penalties | 8-53 | 2-20 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 |
| Fumbles lost | 2 | 0 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 27:12 | 32:48 |
FAU 25.71–29.74 ARMY
HitPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.