NCAAFFinalSpartan Stadium

#25 Northwestern Wildcats at Michigan State Spartans

Final · Peacock

Final

#25Northwestern Wildcats

5-1 · W3

201 PF · 102 PA

Final

Michigan State Spartans

2-5 · L5

149 PF · 178 PA

NU 96%MSU 4%

Model: NU 29.24–21.17 MSU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1269812941

Winner called · off by 6

Most typical sim

NU 28 – MSU 23

Final

NU 24 – MSU 21

Winner: Northwestern (64%)
Spread: MSU +7 covers (52%)
Total: Over 49.5 (54%)
Score error (both teams)6

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: NU vs MSU

The model

How this number was built

NU 29.24–21.17 MSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
MSU +1.4 vs NU +14.0 · pred margin -8.1
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -0.6 vs +6.8 · model MSU 20.6–29.0 NU
Home field
+3.0 pts to MSU
Record
MSU 2-5 · NU 5-1
Market prior
Blended 68% toward NU -7.5 / total 50.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NU	3	7	3	11	24
MSU	7	7	0	7	21

How the points were scored

FGQ1 8:233–0
Jackson Kleather 39 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 2:023–7
Alessio Milivojevic 3 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)
TDQ2 11:0410–7
Caleb Komolafe 10 Yd Run (Jackson Kleather Kick)
TDQ2 0:4710–14
Bryson Williams 32 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Liam Boyd Kick)
FGQ3 4:2413–14
Jackson Kleather 37 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 11:4813–21
Chrishon McCray 53 Yd pass from Alessio Milivojevic (Liam Boyd Kick)
TDQ4 7:2421–21
Aidan Chiles 1 Yd Run (Aidan Chiles Pass to Alex Honig for Two-Point Conversion)
FGQ4 0:0224–21
Jackson Kleather 34 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

NU	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	QBR
Aidan Chiles #0	18/27	226	8.4	56.0
Team	0/1	0	0.0	--
Alex Honig #86	0/1	0	0.0	--
Team	18/29	226	7.8	--

Rushing

NU	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Caleb Komolafe #5	15	67	4.5	1	14
Joseph Himon II #6	7	27	3.9	0	18
Aidan Chiles #0	16	25	1.6	1	17
Gavin Sawchuk #27	4	15	3.8	0	5
Team	42	134	3.2	2	18

Receiving

NU	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Griffin Wilde #17	6	57	9.5	17
Caleb Komolafe #5	4	51	12.8	21
Hayden Eligon II #8	3	47	15.7	23
Alex Honig #86	2	42	21.0	23
Drew Wagner #19	2	18	9.0	14
Joseph Himon II #6	1	11	11.0	11
Team	18	226	12.6	23

Fumbles

NU	FUM	REC
Aidan Chiles #0	1	0
Michael Kilbane #47	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

NU	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Braydon Brus #33	15	6	0	0.5	0	0
Jon Jon Stevens Jr. #29	10	6	0	0	0	0
Kobie McKinzie #2	7	1	0	0	0	0
Montae Pate #4	6	3	0	0	0	0
Braden Turner #9	5	2	0	1	1	0
Damon Walters #21	5	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Kilbane #47	3	3	1	1	0	0
Ore Adeyi #7	3	2	0	0	0	0
Tito Williams Jr. #31	2	1	0	0	0	0
Caden O'Rourke #91	2	1	0	0	0	0
Alijah Jones #0	2	1	0	0	0	0
Migo Jackson #88	2	0	0	0	0	0
Jack Trautmann #90	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
Brenden Deasfernandes #3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Mason Mayne #95	1	1	0	0	0	0
Nikola Dugandzic #92	1	1	0	0	0	0
Dylan Roberts #55	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jack Oyola #27	1	0	0	0	0	0
Dominic Kirks #5	1	0	0	0	0	0
Matthew Smith #32	1	0	0	0	0	1
Jamaal Johnson #24	0	0	0	0	1	2
Team	71	29	1	3	2	3

Kick returns

NU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Joseph Himon II #6	2	39	19.5	20	0
Team	2	39	19.5	20	0

Punt returns

NU	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Drew Wagner #19	1	4	4.0	4	0
Team	1	4	4.0	4	0

Kicking

NU	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jackson Kleather #90	3/4	75.0	39	1/1	10
Team	3/4	75.0	39	1/1	10

Punting

NU	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Nikola Dugandzic #92	3	139	46.3	0	1	51
Team	3	139	46.3	0	1	51

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NU	MSU
1st Downs	23	15
3rd down efficiency	7-14	3-12
4th down efficiency	0-1	2-4
Total Yards	360	305
Passing	226	216
Comp/Att	18/29	19/30
Yards per pass	7.8	7.2
Rushing	134	89
Rushing Attempts	42	27
Yards per rush	3.2	3.3
Penalties	4-20	3-15
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	34:55	25:05

Computer pick · Spread

MSU +7.5

55%

NU 29.24–21.18 MSU

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.