NCAAFFinalGerald J. Ford Stadium

Virginia Cavaliers at #24 SMU Mustangs

Final · CW

Final

Virginia Cavaliers

4-3 · L1

210 PF · 138 PA

Final

#24SMU Mustangs

5-1 · W3

196 PF · 128 PA

UVA 4%SMU 96%

Model: UVA 21.66–29.96 SMU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1179723315

Winner called · off by 17

Most typical sim

UVA 23 – SMU 30

Final

UVA 13 – SMU 23

Winner: SMU (67%)
Spread: UVA +9.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 51.5 (56%)
Score error (both teams)17

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: UVA vs SMU

The model

How this number was built

UVA 21.66–29.96 SMU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
SMU +8.6 vs UVA +6.1 · pred margin +8.3
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +6.3 vs +6.5 · model SMU 27.9–24.9 UVA
Home field
+3.0 pts to SMU
Record
SMU 5-1 · UVA 4-3
Market prior
Blended 68% toward SMU -10 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UVA	0	10	3	0	13
SMU	3	10	3	7	23

How the points were scored

FGQ1 2:560–3
Brendan Baird 23 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 11:277–3
Beau Pribula 1 Yd Run (Will Bettridge Kick)
TDQ2 6:207–10
Randy Pittman Jr. 6 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)
FGQ2 0:2510–10
Will Bettridge 47 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 0:0010–13
Brendan Baird 45 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 2:5910–16
Brendan Baird 26 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 0:2413–16
Will Bettridge 43 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 12:2213–23
Jalen Hale 37 Yd pass from Kevin Jennings (Brendan Baird Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

UVA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Beau Pribula #7	13/22	137	6.2	0	0	38.4
Team	13/22	137	6.2	0	0	--

Rushing

UVA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jekail Middlebrook #21	14	59	4.2	0	9
Xay Davis #25	7	34	4.9	0	11
Beau Pribula #7	10	25	2.5	1	22
Xavier Brown #0	1	3	3.0	0	3
Team	32	121	3.8	1	22

Receiving

UVA	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Da'Shawn Martin #18	2	35	17.5	30
Jacquon Gibson #4	2	30	15.0	25
John Rogers #89	3	28	9.3	11
Jekail Middlebrook #21	3	19	6.3	12
Ty'Lyric Coleman #8	1	13	13.0	13
Xay Davis #25	2	12	6.0	9
Team	13	137	10.5	30

Fumbles

UVA	FUM	LOST	REC
Beau Pribula #7	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

UVA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Justin Ross #17	6	5	0	0	0	0
Matthew Fobbs-White #16	6	4	1	2	0	5
Ethan Minter #30	6	3	0	0.5	1	0
Montino Williams #1	6	3	0	0	0	0
Donavon Platt #2	5	3	0	0	1	1
Maddox Marcellus #11	5	3	0	0	0	0
Sichan John #51	5	2	0	0	0	0
Jacobie Henderson #10	4	3	0	0	0	0
Landon Danley #32	4	2	0	0.5	0	0
Kam Robinson #5	4	1	0	0.5	1	1
Myles Brown #13	4	0	0	0	1	0
Fisher Camac #14	3	2	0	0	0	0
Christian Ellis #8	2	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Britton #55	2	0	0	0	0	0
Nnanna Anyanwu #33	2	0	0	0.5	0	1
Keke Adams #21	2	0	0	0	0	0
Wyatt Rubinoff #50	1	1	0	0	0	0
Jaylen Jones #23	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cazeem Moore #6	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jekail Middlebrook #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Ja'Maric Morris #0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Chadwick Jr. #34	1	0	0	0	0	0
Josiah Persinger #7	1	0	0	0	0	0
Cayden Cook-Cash #49	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	74	32	1	4	4	8

Kicking

UVA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will Bettridge #41	2/2	100.0	47	1/1	7
Team	2/2	100.0	47	1/1	7

Punting

UVA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Daniel Sparks #38	3	162	54.0	1	0	68
Team	3	162	54.0	1	0	68

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	UVA	SMU
1st Downs	13	23
3rd down efficiency	4-13	4-13
4th down efficiency	2-3	4-5
Total Yards	258	404
Passing	137	246
Comp/Att	13/22	23/36
Yards per pass	6.2	6.8
Rushing	121	158
Rushing Attempts	32	33
Yards per rush	3.8	4.8
Penalties	4-35	6-45
Turnovers	1	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	29:01	30:59

Computer pick · Spread

UVA +8.5

54%

UVA 21.64–29.98 SMU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.