NCAAFFinalAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)

Pittsburgh Panthers at Boston College Eagles

Final · ESPN2

Final

Pittsburgh Panthers

5-2 · L2

230 PF · 115 PA

Final

Boston College Eagles

3-3 · W1

122 PF · 138 PA

PITT 97%BC 3%

Model: PITT 26.09–17.25 BC

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1397832362

Missed · off by 11

Most typical sim

PITT 25 – BC 20

Final

PITT 21 – BC 27

Winner: Pitt (61%)
Spread: BC +6.5 covers (54%)
Total: Over 42.5 (59%)
Score error (both teams)11

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: PITT vs BC

The model

How this number was built

PITT 26.09–17.25 BC · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
BC -5.3 vs PITT +11.4 · pred margin -8.8
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) -2.1 vs +8.7 · model BC 18.7–32.3 PITT
Home field
+3.0 pts to BC
Record
BC 3-3 · PITT 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward PITT -6.5 / total 42.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PITT	12	0	6	3	21
BC	7	7	7	6	27

How the points were scored

TDQ1 14:427–0
Cataurus Hicks 75 Yd pass from Corey Dailey (Antonio Chadha Kick)
SFQ1 13:069–0
Team Safety
FGQ1 7:5812–0
Antonio Chadha 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ1 1:4112–7
Bo MacCormack III 1 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo Kick)
TDQ2 0:5112–14
Javarius Green 11 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)
TDQ3 14:1412–21
Landon Wright 69 Yd pass from Mason McKenzie (Luca Lombardo Kick)
FGQ3 10:2215–21
Antonio Chadha 29 Yd Field Goal
FGQ3 0:2218–21
Antonio Chadha 42 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 13:0218–27
Evan Dickens 1 Yd Run (Luca Lombardo PAT failed)
FGQ4 8:1321–27
Antonio Chadha 38 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

PITT	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Corey Dailey #16	11/25	193	7.7	1	2	39.2
Team	11/25	193	7.7	1	2	--

Rushing

PITT	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
D Damon Ferguson Jr. #26	17	119	7.0	16
La'Vell Wright #11	15	52	3.5	11
Tony Kinsler #2	2	16	8.0	9
Corey Dailey #16	4	9	2.3	8
Braylan Lovelace #0	1	3	3.0	3
Team	39	199	5.1	16

Receiving

PITT	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cataurus Hicks #3	5	135	27.0	1	75
Malik Knight #7	3	30	10.0	0	12
Carson Kent #86	2	20	10.0	0	14
Censere Lee #10	1	8	8.0	0	8
Team	11	193	17.5	1	75

Fumbles

PITT	FUM	LOST	REC
D Damon Ferguson Jr. #26	1	1	0
Team	1	1	0

Defense

PITT	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jeremiah Marcelin #32	12	3	0.5	1	1	1
Cruce Brookins #12	9	4	0	1.5	0	0
Alex Sanford Jr. #10	7	4	0	0	0	0
Braylan Lovelace #0	7	2	0	0.5	0	0
Cole Woodson #17	5	1	0	0	0	0
Sean FitzSimmons #55	4	2	1	1	0	0
Raion Strader #6	4	2	0	0	0	0
Nick James #11	4	1	0.5	1	0	0
Jaeden Moore #8	3	1	0	1.5	0	0
Isaiah Neal #2	2	1	0	0	0	0
DeMarco Ward #7	2	1	0	0	0	1
Zion Ferguson #22	2	1	0	0	0	0
Zach Crothers #5	2	0	0	0.5	0	0
Shawn Lee Jr. #3	2	0	0	0	0	0
Kentrail McRae Jr. #25	1	1	0	0	0	0
Shadarian Harrison #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Eliyt Nairne #16	1	0	0	0	0	0
Abe Ibrahim #52	1	0	0	0	0	1
Tony Forney #15	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jimmy Scott #44	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	70	24	2	7	1	4

Interceptions

PITT	INT	YDS	TD
Raion Strader #6	2	13	0
Team	2	13	0

Kick returns

PITT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Justin Cook #5	5	90	18.0	21	0
Team	5	90	18.0	21	0

Punt returns

PITT	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kanye Thompson #23	1	20	20.0	20
Cataurus Hicks #3	1	9	9.0	9
Team	2	29	14.5	20

Kicking

PITT	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Antonio Chadha #48	4/4	100.0	42	1/1	13
Team	4/4	100.0	42	1/1	13

Punting

PITT	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Gabe Russo #98	1	48	48.0	0	1	48
Team	1	48	48.0	0	1	48

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	PITT	BC
1st Downs	22	25
3rd down efficiency	2-10	8-13
4th down efficiency	2-2	1-3
Total Yards	392	398
Passing	193	295
Comp/Att	11/25	17/28
Yards per pass	7.7	10.5
Rushing	199	103
Rushing Attempts	39	40
Yards per rush	5.1	2.6
Penalties	13-133	7-47
Turnovers	3	2
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	2	2
Possession	28:22	31:38

Computer pick · Total

Over 42.5

55%

PITT 26.04–17.25 BC

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.