Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats
Final · FS1
Model: KU 25.90–29.57 KSU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 1370606842
- Winner: Kansas St (58%)
- Spread: KU +3.5 covers (50%)
- Total: Under 55.5 (51%)
- Score error (both teams)8
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: KU vs KSU
The model
How this number was built
KU 25.90–29.57 KSU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexKSU +7.1 vs KU +5.1 · pred margin +3.7
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +5.9 vs +4.7 · model KSU 30.2–25.0 KU
- Home field+3.0 pts to KSU
- RecordKSU 4-2 · KU 2-4
- Market priorBlended 68% toward KSU -3 / total 55.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 17 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| KSU | 7 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 35 |
How the points were scored
- TDQ1 13:170–7
Rodney Fields Jr. 4 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- TDQ1 13:047–7
Bryson Hayes 95 Yd Kickoff Return (Martin Connington Kick)
- TDQ1 4:2114–7
Nik McMillan 12 Yd pass from Isaiah Marshall (Martin Connington Kick)
- FGQ1 0:5117–7
Martin Connington 31 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 11:5017–10
Luis Rodriguez 22 Yd Field Goal
- FGQ2 6:5717–13
Luis Rodriguez 51 Yd Field Goal
- SFQ2 1:3917–15
Team Safety
- FGQ2 0:2417–18
Luis Rodriguez 28 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ3 11:0524–18
Dylan Edwards 3 Yd Run (Martin Connington Kick)
- TDQ3 6:3224–25
Joe Jackson 8 Yd Run (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- TDQ4 8:2824–32
Jaron Tibbs 9 Yd pass from Avery Johnson (Luis Rodriguez Kick)
- FGQ4 1:5624–35
Luis Rodriguez 34 Yd Field Goal
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| KU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Isaiah Marshall #8 | 12/26 | 151 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | 59.9 |
| Team | 12/26 | 151 | 5.8 | 1 | 1 | -- |
Rushing
| KU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Marshall #8 | 14 | 117 | 8.4 | 0 | 33 |
 Dylan Edwards #1 | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 | 18 |
 Bryson Hayes #12 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 |
 Jalen Dupree #4 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 1 |
 Matthew Gill #99 | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 34 | 168 | 4.9 | 1 | 33 |
Receiving
| KU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nik McMillan #5 | 5 | 55 | 11.0 | 1 | 18 |
 Leyton Cure #87 | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 22 |
Dylan Edwards #1 | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 | 17 |
 Carson Bruhn #44 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 20 |
 Cam Pickett #7 | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Team | 12 | 151 | 12.6 | 1 | 22 |
Fumbles
| KU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Marshall #8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Matthew Gill #99 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 David Santiago #44 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Defense
| KU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Trey Lathan #4 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Bam Crouch #7 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Corey Gordon #3 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
David Santiago #44 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Taylor Davis #27 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Elijah Cannon #10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Calvin #56 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jalen Todd #1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Quincy Davis #13 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Kevin Oatis #88 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Leroy Harris III #33 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
 Roman Pearson #5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Blake Herold #94 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Malachi Curvey #11 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Ezra Vedral #41 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Mason Ellis #23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eamon Smalls #99 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Dakyus Brinkley #9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Austin Alexander #0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Carson Bruhn #44 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Pritchett #20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaron Willis #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bryson Hayes #12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 68 | 44 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Kick returns
| KU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bryson Hayes #12 | 1 | 95 | 95.0 | 95 | 1 |
Jalen Dupree #4 | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 110 | 55.0 | 95 | 1 |
Kicking
| KU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Martin Connington #29 | 1/1 | 100.0 | 31 | 3/3 | 6 |
| Team | 1/1 | 100.0 | 31 | 3/3 | 6 |
Punting
| KU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Matthew Gill #99 | 4 | 132 | 33.0 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| Team | 4 | 132 | 33.0 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| KU | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 18 | 25 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 3-11 | 6-13 |
| 4th down efficiency | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 319 | 568 |
| Passing | 151 | 209 |
| Comp/Att | 12/26 | 14/24 |
| Yards per pass | 5.8 | 8.7 |
| Rushing | 168 | 359 |
| Rushing Attempts | 34 | 51 |
| Yards per rush | 4.9 | 7.0 |
| Penalties | 7-66 | 5-55 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 1 |
| Interceptions thrown | 1 | 0 |
| Possession | 23:47 | 36:13 |
KU 25.91–29.57 KSU
MissPlayer props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.