NCAAFFinalMilan Puskar Stadium

Cincinnati Bearcats at West Virginia Mountaineers

Final · TNT

Final

Cincinnati Bearcats

4-2 · L2

211 PF · 161 PA

Final

West Virginia Mountaineers

4-3 · W1

263 PF · 238 PA

CIN 49%WVU 51%

Model: CIN 31.88–32.27 WVU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3199514408

Winner called · off by 27

Most typical sim

CIN 29 – WVU 31

Final

CIN 42 – WVU 45

Winner: West Virginia (54%)
Spread: WVU -1.5 covers (53%)
Total: Under 63.5 (61%)
Score error (both teams)27

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: CIN vs WVU

The model

How this number was built

CIN 31.88–32.27 WVU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
WVU -0.5 vs CIN +3.6 · pred margin +0.4
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +0.1 vs +4.8 · model WVU 28.4–32.4 CIN
Home field
+3.0 pts to WVU
Record
WVU 4-3 · CIN 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward WVU -1.5 / total 64.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
CIN	7	14	7	14	42
WVU	0	14	7	24	45

How the points were scored

TDQ1 8:537–0
JV Gibson 4 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
TDQ2 11:567–7
Michael Hawkins Jr. 12 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
TDQ2 4:5514–7
Isaiah Johnson 51 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
TDQ2 2:1914–14
Michael Hawkins Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
TDQ2 1:2221–14
Cole Tabb 28 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
TDQ3 12:3221–21
Josh Sapp 4 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)
TDQ3 1:3428–21
JC French IV 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
TDQ4 14:5128–28
DJ Epps 37 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)
TDQ4 11:2335–28
Cole Tabb 11 Yd pass from JC French IV (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
TDQ4 7:2935–35
Amari Latimer 3 Yd Run (Jack Cassidy Kick)
TDQ4 5:3542–35
Cole Tabb 6 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
TDQ4 3:4442–42
Cam Cook 40 Yd pass from Michael Hawkins Jr. (Jack Cassidy Kick)
FGQ4 0:0042–45
Jack Cassidy 35 Yd Field Goal

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

CIN	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
JC French IV #4	22/30	389	13.0	3	0	75.5
Team	22/30	389	13.0	3	0	--

Rushing

CIN	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Cole Tabb #3	15	118	7.9	2	37
JC French IV #4	13	52	4.0	1	25
Zylan Perry #7	5	37	7.4	0	12
Gi'Bran Payne #6	7	26	3.7	0	9
Team	40	233	5.8	3	37

Receiving

CIN	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Malachi Henry #9	2	128	64.0	0	69
Isaiah Johnson #0	3	85	28.3	1	51
JV Gibson #11	7	75	10.7	1	19
Cole Tabb #3	4	51	12.8	1	19
Gavin Grover #87	2	18	9.0	0	12
Zylan Perry #7	1	17	17.0	0	17
Giyahni Kontosis #18	1	6	6.0	0	6
Lyviel Waters #85	1	5	5.0	0	5
Ka'Maurri Smith #82	1	4	4.0	0	4
Team	22	389	17.7	3	69

Fumbles

CIN	FUM	LOST	REC
JC French IV #4	1	0	0
Team	1	0	0

Defense

CIN	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jonathan Thompson #22	15	8	0	0	0	1
Jasper Beeler #18	11	4	0	0	0	0
Patrick Bauer #10	8	6	1.5	3.5	0	0
MJ Cannon #2	7	5	0	0	0	0
Antwan Peek Jr. #3	7	5	0.5	1.5	0	0
Simeon Coleman #31	7	2	1	1	0	0
Jacob Finley #0	4	4	0	0	1	0
KK Meier #14	4	4	0	1	0	0
Drew Logan #91	4	0	0	0	0	0
Kenny Worthy #8	3	3	0	0	0	0
Marqavious Saboor #5	3	1	0	0	0	0
Marquaze Parker #4	3	1	0	0	0	0
Damaine Wilson #9	3	0	0	0	0	0
Jaylon White-McClain #16	2	2	0	1	0	0
Brian Simms III #17	2	1	0	0	0	0
D'Angelo Hutchinson #30	1	1	0	0	0	0
Chidera Otutu #11	1	1	0	1	0	0
Jonathan Rulo #99	1	0	0	0	0	0
Elijah Gunn #92	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	86	48	3	9	1	2

Kick returns

CIN	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG
Zylan Perry #7	1	14	14.0	14
Gavin Grover #87	1	2	2.0	2
Team	2	16	8.0	14

Kicking

CIN	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Stephen Rusnak #99	0/0	0.0	0	6/6	6
Team	0/0	0.0	0	6/6	6

Punting

CIN	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Max Fletcher #31	4	179	44.8	0	3	66
Team	4	179	44.8	0	3	66

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	CIN	WVU
1st Downs	28	27
3rd down efficiency	7-13	6-13
4th down efficiency	1-2	2-2
Total Yards	622	598
Passing	389	464
Comp/Att	22/30	25/33
Yards per pass	13.0	14.1
Rushing	233	134
Rushing Attempts	40	46
Yards per rush	5.8	2.9
Penalties	8-49	4-31
Turnovers	0	0
Fumbles lost	0	0
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	31:56	28:04

Computer pick · Total

Under 63.5

56%

CIN 31.88–32.27 WVU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.