NCAAFFinalDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Florida Gators at #7 Texas Longhorns

Final · ABC

Final

Florida Gators

5-2 · W1

277 PF · 198 PA

Final

#7Texas Longhorns

4-2 · L2

181 PF · 107 PA

FLA <1%TEX >99%

Model: FLA 19.05–32.74 TEX

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2451577554

Missed · off by 13

Most typical sim

FLA 21 – TEX 31

Final

FLA 27 – TEX 24

Winner: Texas (73%)
Spread: FLA +11.5 covers (55%)
Total: Over 51.5 (53%)
Score error (both teams)13

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: FLA vs TEX

The model

How this number was built

FLA 19.05–32.74 TEX · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
TEX +25.7 vs FLA +12.6 · pred margin +13.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +8.3 vs +4.3 · model TEX 32.0–22.4 FLA
Home field
+3.0 pts to TEX
Record
TEX 4-2 · FLA 5-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward TEX -13.5 / total 51.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
FLA	0	10	7	10	27
TEX	10	7	0	7	24

How the points were scored

TDQ1 11:420–7
Raleek Brown 32 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)
FGQ1 6:420–10
Gianni Spetic 38 Yd Field Goal
FGQ2 13:483–10
Patrick Durkin 45 Yd Field Goal
TDQ2 11:273–17
Ryan Niblett 63 Yd Punt Return (Gianni Spetic Kick)
TDQ2 0:1810–17
Lacota Dippre 7 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Patrick Durkin Kick)
TDQ3 6:5017–17
Lacota Dippre 8 Yd pass from Tramell Jones Jr. (Patrick Durkin Kick)
FGQ4 10:4020–17
Patrick Durkin 28 Yd Field Goal
TDQ4 6:2227–17
Jadan Baugh 11 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)
TDQ4 4:2127–24
Cam Coleman 9 Yd pass from Arch Manning (Gianni Spetic Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

FLA	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Tramell Jones Jr. #9	22/35	155	4.4	2	0	84.0
Team	22/35	155	4.4	2	0	--

Rushing

FLA	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jadan Baugh #13	25	91	3.6	1	13
Tramell Jones Jr. #9	10	41	4.1	0	14
London Montgomery #24	4	20	5.0	0	9
Eric Singleton Jr. #2	2	8	4.0	0	8
Evan Pryor #21	2	4	2.0	0	5
Team	3	-6	-2.0	0	0
Team	46	158	3.4	1	14

Receiving

FLA	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Eric Singleton Jr. #2	7	43	6.1	0	12
Bailey Stockton #3	4	31	7.8	0	14
Dallas Wilson #6	3	27	9.0	0	17
Lacota Dippre #17	2	15	7.5	2	8
Micah Mays Jr. #5	2	13	6.5	0	7
Jadan Baugh #13	2	13	6.5	0	14
London Montgomery #24	1	8	8.0	0	8
Luke Harpring #15	1	5	5.0	0	5
Team	22	155	7.0	2	17

Fumbles

FLA	FUM	REC
Team	1	0
Kanye Clark #20	0	1
Team	1	1

Defense

FLA	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Myles Graham #5	7	3	1	1	0	0
Cormani McClain #25	6	4	0	1	0	0
Kanye Clark #20	6	3	0	0	0	0
DJ Coleman #33	6	1	0	0	0	0
Aaron Chiles #8	5	1	0	1	0	0
LJ McCray #11	4	3	1.5	2.5	0	0
Brendan Bett #90	4	2	0.5	1.5	0	0
Lagonza Hayward #2	4	1	0.5	0.5	0	0
Jayden Woods #0	3	2	0	0	0	0
Ty Jackson #7	3	1	0.5	1.5	0	0
Ben Hanks III #12	3	1	0.5	0.5	0	0
S Stive-Bentley Keumajou-Yondui #56	2	1	0	0	0	0
Bryce Thornton #1	2	0	0	0	1	0
Emmanuel Oyebadejo #99	1	1	0	1	0	0
Alfonzo Allen Jr. #43	1	0	0	0	0	0
DK Kalu #93	1	0	0.5	0.5	0	0
Jaden Robinson #29	1	0	0	0	0	1
Kamran James #24	1	0	0	0	0	0
Jeramiah McCloud #91	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team	60	24	5	11	2	2

Kick returns

FLA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
London Montgomery #24	5	105	21.0	30	0
Team	5	105	21.0	30	0

Punt returns

FLA	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Jadan Baugh #13	1	4	4.0	4	0
Team	1	4	4.0	4	0

Kicking

FLA	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Patrick Durkin #91	2/2	100.0	45	3/3	9
Team	2/2	100.0	45	3/3	9

Punting

FLA	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Alec Clark #38	6	311	51.8	1	2	75
Team	6	311	51.8	1	2	75

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	FLA	TEX
1st Downs	21	13
3rd down efficiency	8-19	2-10
4th down efficiency	2-2	1-3
Total Yards	313	272
Passing	155	173
Comp/Att	22/35	14/20
Yards per pass	4.4	8.7
Rushing	158	99
Rushing Attempts	46	30
Yards per rush	3.4	3.3
Penalties	7-55	1-15
Turnovers	0	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	0	0
Possession	38:11	21:49

Computer pick · Spread

FLA +10.5

53%

FLA 19.03–32.74 TEX

Hit

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.