NCAAFFinalTiger Stadium (LA)

#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs at #22 LSU Tigers

Final · ESPN

Final

#16Mississippi State Bulldogs

4-2 · L2

195 PF · 171 PA

Final

#22LSU Tigers

5-2 · W1

283 PF · 111 PA

MSST 17%LSU 83%

Model: MSST 20.48–36.18 LSU

How close was our sim?

Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 2384467078

Winner called · off by 25

Most typical sim

MSST 21 – LSU 35

Final

MSST 0 – LSU 31

Winner: LSU (81%)
Spread: MSST +16.5 covers (56%)
Total: Over 56.5 (50%)
Score error (both teams)25

Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.

Advanced analytics

Matchup edge: MSST vs LSU

The model

How this number was built

MSST 20.48–36.18 LSU · Medium confidence

overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

Power index
LSU +21.0 vs MSST +12.2 · pred margin +15.7
Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)
Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +9.6 vs +4.1 · model LSU 35.1–23.1 MSST
Home field
+3.0 pts to LSU
Record
LSU 5-2 · MSST 4-2
Market prior
Blended 68% toward LSU -17.5 / total 56.5

Full write-up of the model

Line score

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MSST	0	0	0	0	0
LSU	14	7	10	0	31

How the points were scored

TDQ1 9:570–7
Eugene Wilson III 10 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)
TDQ1 3:270–14
Jackson Harris 27 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)
TDQ2 6:120–21
Jackson Harris 17 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)
FGQ3 6:450–24
Scott Starzyk 26 Yd Field Goal
TDQ3 0:310–31
Malik Elzy 6 Yd pass from Sam Leavitt (Scott Starzyk Kick)

Player stats

Full box — every player, every category.

Passing

MSST	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	QBR
Parker Puckett #15	16/26	121	4.7	0	1	24.7
Team	16/26	121	4.7	0	1	--

Rushing

MSST	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kolin Wilson #6	18	71	3.9	13
Parker Puckett #15	11	40	3.6	33
Xavier Gayten #5	8	36	4.5	20
J J.J. Hill #21	5	23	4.6	11
Team	42	170	4.0	33

Receiving

MSST	REC	YDS	AVG	LONG
Anthony Evans III #3	7	40	5.7	11
Sanfrisco Magee #13	3	36	12.0	22
Marquis Johnson #2	3	26	8.7	12
Kolin Wilson #6	2	15	7.5	9
Zion Ragins #7	1	4	4.0	4
Team	16	121	7.6	22

Fumbles

MSST	FUM	REC
Marquis Johnson #2	1	0
Parker Puckett #15	1	0
Jett Jefferson #20	0	1
Team	2	1

Defense

MSST	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HUR
Jett Jefferson #20	8	5	0	0	0	0
Tyler Lockhart #11	7	6	0	0	0	0
Marcus Williams #15	6	3	1	2	0	0
Fatt Forrest #0	6	2	0	0	0	0
DJ Reed #42	5	3	0	1	0	0
Bralan Womack #6	5	3	0	0	0	0
Kendel Dolby #3	5	2	0	0	0	0
Isaac Smith #2	4	2	0	0	0	0
Kelley Jones #1	4	2	0	0	0	0
Tanner Johnson #28	3	2	0	0	0	0
Jardin Gilbert #5	3	1	0	0	0	0
Amaree Williams #4	3	1	0	0	1	0
Kalvin Dinkins #35	2	2	0	1	0	1
LaKendrick James #13	2	2	0	0	0	0
Will Whitson #43	2	0	0	0	0	0
Jaray Bledsoe #9	2	0	0	0	0	0
Tyshun Willis #41	1	1	1	1	0	0
Dealyn Evans #14	1	1	0	0	0	0
Eddie Kelly Jr. #93	1	1	0	0	0	0
AJ Rice #32	1	1	0	1	0	0
Dre Riley #21	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team	72	40	2	6	1	1

Kick returns

MSST	NO	YDS	AVG	LONG	TD
Marquis Johnson #2	1	34	34.0	34	0
Team	1	34	34.0	34	0

Punting

MSST	NO	YDS	AVG	TB	In 20	LONG
Ethan Pulliam #8	2	64	32.0	0	0	36
Team	2	64	32.0	0	0	36

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	MSST	LSU
1st Downs	18	28
3rd down efficiency	7-15	8-13
4th down efficiency	0-5	1-1
Total Yards	291	379
Passing	121	289
Comp/Att	16/26	31/38
Yards per pass	4.7	7.6
Rushing	170	90
Rushing Attempts	42	31
Yards per rush	4.0	2.9
Penalties	7-75	3-30
Turnovers	1	1
Fumbles lost	0	1
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Possession	30:10	29:50

Computer pick · Spread

MSST +14.5

55%

MSST 20.48–36.18 LSU

Miss

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

DraftKings hasn’t posted player props for this matchup yet.