#4 Ohio State Buckeyes at #5 Indiana Hoosiers
Final · Fox
Model: OSU 25.56–24.04 IU
How close was our sim?
Pre-game sim locked Oct 16, 5:51 PM CT · 10,000 sims · seed 3098720507
- Winner: Ohio State (53%)
- Spread: IU +3 covers (50%)
- Total: Over 50.5 (59%)
- Score error (both teams)19
Final from ESPN final. Sims are locked before start and never edited.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: OSU vs IU
The model
How this number was built
OSU 25.56–24.04 IU · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.
- Power indexIU +25.8 vs OSU +28.3 · pred margin -1.5
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Opponent-adjusted (SOS) +16.7 vs +16.3 · model IU 27.2–23.3 OSU
- Home field+3.0 pts to IU
- RecordIU 6-1 · OSU 6-1
- Market priorBlended 68% toward OSU -3 / total 49.5
Line score
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSU | 3 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| IU | 0 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 15 |
How the points were scored
- FGQ1 11:523–0
Connor Hawkins 26 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ2 13:543–7
Turbo Richard 7 Yd Run (Nico Radicic Kick)
- TDQ2 0:0710–7
Bo Jackson 2 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Connor Hawkins Kick)
- FGQ3 11:5113–7
Connor Hawkins 29 Yd Field Goal
- TDQ4 12:4619–7
Jeremiah Smith 38 Yd pass from Julian Sayin (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
- TDQ4 10:3019–15
Nick Marsh 19 Yd pass from Josh Hoover (Josh Hoover Pass to Turbo Richard for Two-Point Conversion)
Player stats
Full box — every player, every category.
Passing
| OSU | C/ATT | YDS | AVG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Julian Sayin #10 | 15/29 | 235 | 8.1 | 2 | 2 | 67.1 |
 Luke Fahey #13 | 0/2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Team | 15/31 | 235 | 7.6 | 2 | 2 | -- |
Rushing
| OSU | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Bo Jackson #25 | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 0 | 12 |
 Isaiah West #32 | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 0 | 22 |
 Legend Bey #2 | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | 6 |
 Jeremiah Smith #4 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2 |
Luke Fahey #13 | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 8 |
Team | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Julian Sayin #10 | 5 | -26 | -5.2 | 0 | 5 |
| Team | 37 | 78 | 2.1 | 0 | 22 |
Receiving
| OSU | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeremiah Smith #4 | 4 | 68 | 17.0 | 1 | 38 |
 Chris Henry Jr. #15 | 2 | 51 | 25.5 | 0 | 30 |
 Mason Williams #86 | 2 | 45 | 22.5 | 0 | 28 |
 Devin McCuin #3 | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | 16 |
 Nate Roberts #83 | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 18 |
 Phillip Bell #7 | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 |
Isaiah West #32 | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 |
 Brandon Inniss #0 | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 |
Bo Jackson #25 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | 15 | 235 | 15.7 | 2 | 38 |
Fumbles
| OSU | FUM | LOST | REC |
|---|---|---|---|
Julian Sayin #10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Earl Little Jr. #1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
 Tarvos Alford #17 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Defense
| OSU | TOT | SOLO | SACKS | TFL | PD | QB HUR | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Earl Little Jr. #1 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jay Timmons #25 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 Kenyatta Jackson Jr. #2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Payton Pierce #26 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Devin Sanchez #6 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Jermaine Mathews Jr. #7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Moore #94 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Jaylen McClain #8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tarvos Alford #17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Eddrick Houston #96 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Smith Jr. #53 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 James Smith #3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Riley Pettijohn #5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 Beau Atkinson #12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Cam Calhoun #18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Jeremiah Smith #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Maxence LeBlanc #88 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Qua Russaw #4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 John Walker #55 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 Christian Alliegro #14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Team | 70 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
Punt returns
| OSU | NO | YDS | AVG | LONG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Phillip Bell #7 | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 14 | 0 |
| Team | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 14 | 0 |
Kicking
| OSU | FG | PCT | LONG | XP | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Connor Hawkins #96 | 2/2 | 100.0 | 29 | 1/1 | 7 |
| Team | 2/2 | 100.0 | 29 | 1/1 | 7 |
Punting
| OSU | NO | YDS | AVG | TB | In 20 | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Joe McGuire #42 | 5 | 222 | 44.4 | 0 | 2 | 52 |
| Team | 5 | 222 | 44.4 | 0 | 2 | 52 |
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| OSU | IU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Downs | 19 | 17 |
| 3rd down efficiency | 6-15 | 8-16 |
| 4th down efficiency | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Total Yards | 313 | 369 |
| Passing | 235 | 296 |
| Comp/Att | 15/31 | 20/40 |
| Yards per pass | 7.6 | 7.4 |
| Rushing | 78 | 73 |
| Rushing Attempts | 37 | 29 |
| Yards per rush | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalties | 7-50 | 4-42 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Fumbles lost | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions thrown | 2 | 0 |
| Possession | 32:12 | 27:48 |
OSU 25.56–24.04 IU
MissPlayer props
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