Atalanta at AC Milan
TV · Paramount+
ATA 0.98–1.74 MIL
Projected ATA 0.98–1.74 MIL · most likely 0–1
Model vs market
Gap: -3 pts of win %, +0.21 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
ATA 0.98–1.74 MIL · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseMIL +0.3 off · ATA +0.0 off, shrunk 43%
- Home field+0.3 goals to MIL
- RecordMIL 3-3-0 · ATA 3-0-3
Season leaders
- Nikola Krstovicgoals 3
- Nikola Krstovicgoalsleaders 3
- Adrien Rabiotgoals 3
- Adrien Rabiotgoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ATA | MIL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 0 | 6 |
| Total Goals | 8 | 11 |
| Assists | 5 | 9 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 5 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- C. Pulisic · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+165
- F. Camarda · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+205
- G. Scamacca · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATA+250
- N. Krstovic · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATA+250
- S. Chukwueze · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+280
- R. Loftus-Cheek · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+300
- G. Raspadori · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATA+310
- O. Hutchinson · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+330
- D. Moreira · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+330
- C. De Ketelaere · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATA+350
- A. Rabiot · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIL+360
- L. Samardzic · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ATA+450