La LigaSun 2:00 PM CTSantiago Bernabéu

Sevilla at Real Madrid

TV · ABC

Sun 2:00 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

71%

SEV 1.22–2.20 RMA

Sevilla

4-2-2

Form DLWWD · 13 PF · 12 PA

1.22

Projected

Real Madrid

6-0-2

Form DWLWW · 19 PF · 8 PA

2.20

SEV 21%Draw 20%RMA 59%

Projected SEV 1.22–2.20 RMA · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

RMA win

70%

90% (no-vig)

Total

3.42

3.5

Gap: -20 pts of win %, -0.08 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

SEV 1.22–2.20 RMA · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
RMA +0.6 off · SEV +0.2 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+0.3 goals to RMA
Record
RMA 6-0-2 · SEV 4-2-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Miguel Sierra
goals 2
Miguel Sierra
goalsleaders 2

Kylian Mbappé
goals 7
Kylian Mbappé
goalsleaders 7

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SEV	RMA
Goal Difference	1	11
Total Goals	13	19
Assists	7	14
Goals Against	12	8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Y. Diomande · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+165
J. Bellingham · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+195
L. Stassin · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SEV
+400
F. Valverde · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+550
T. Pitarch · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+550
C. Ejuke · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SEV
+600
B. Silva · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+650
R. Vargas · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SEV
+650
D. Dumfries · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+850
F. Correia · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SEV
+850
J. Cestero · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+850
T. Alexander-Arnold · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RMA
+1000