La LigaSun 9:15 AM CTBalaidos

Alavés at Celta Vigo

TV · ESPN+

Sun 9:15 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

53%

ALA 0.97–1.17 CEL

Alavés

3-2-3

Form DDLLW · 12 PF · 8 PA

0.97

Projected

Celta Vigo

1-5-2

Form DDWLD · 8 PF · 6 PA

1.17

ALA 30%Draw 29%CEL 40%

Projected ALA 0.97–1.17 CEL · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

CEL win

55%

61% (no-vig)

Total

2.13

2.5

Gap: -5 pts of win %, -0.37 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

ALA 0.97–1.17 CEL · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
CEL -0.1 off · ALA +0.1 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+0.3 goals to CEL
Record
CEL 1-5-2 · ALA 3-2-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Lucas Boyé
goals 5
Lucas Boyé
goalsleaders 5

Pablo Durán
goals 2
Pablo Durán
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	ALA	CEL
Goal Difference	4	2
Total Goals	12	8
Assists	8	6
Goals Against	8	6

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

I. Aspas · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+265
W. Swedberg · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+300
C. Driouech · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+380
J. Rueda · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+750
A. Febas · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+800
S. Carreira · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+1100
A. Rebbach · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1100
M. Alonso · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+1200
N. Tenaglia · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1500
A. Faye · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · CEL
+2800
V. Koski · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+3500
A. Guevara · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · ALA
+1900