Ligue 1Sun 10:15 AM CTStade Jean Bouin

Stade Rennais at Paris FC

Sun 10:15 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

55%

REN 1.25–1.74 PAR

Stade Rennais

4-1-1

Form DWLDW · 12 PF · 10 PA

1.25

Projected

Paris FC

3-2-1

Form DWDWW · 8 PF · 4 PA

1.74

REN 28%Draw 24%PAR 49%

Projected REN 1.25–1.74 PAR · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

PAR win

61%

61% (no-vig)

Total

2.99

2.5

Gap: -0 pts of win %, +0.49 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

REN 1.25–1.74 PAR · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
PAR +0.0 off · REN +0.3 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to PAR
Record
PAR 3-2-1 · REN 4-1-1

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Esteban Lepaul
goals 4
Esteban Lepaul
goalsleaders 4

Lassine Sinayoko
goals 4
Lassine Sinayoko
goalsleaders 4

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	REN	PAR
Goal Difference	2	4
Total Goals	12	8
Assists	9	6
Goals Against	10	4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

L. Sinayoko · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+170
P. Pagis · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+180
E. Lepaul · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+190
M. Simon · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+225
B. Dia · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+225
I. Kebbal · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+255
L. Blas · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+330
E. Mayenda · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+350
L. Koleosho · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+370
A. Nordin · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+500
A. Thomasson · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · REN
+550
A. Camara · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · PAR
+550