EPLSun 8:00 AM CTVitality Stadium

Sunderland at AFC Bournemouth

TV · Peacock

Sun 8:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

51%

SUN 1.33–1.66 BOU

Sunderland

1-1-4

Form DLLWL · 6 PF · 12 PA

1.33

Projected

AFC Bournemouth

0-3-3

Form DLLWD · 7 PF · 13 PA

1.66

SUN 31%Draw 24%BOU 45%

Projected SUN 1.33–1.66 BOU · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BOU win

57%

62% (no-vig)

Total

2.99

2.5

Gap: -5 pts of win %, +0.49 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

SUN 1.33–1.66 BOU · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
BOU -0.1 off · SUN -0.2 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to BOU
Record
BOU 0-3-3 · SUN 1-1-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Brian Brobbey
goals 3
Brian Brobbey
goalsleaders 3

Marcus Tavernier
goals 3
Marcus Tavernier
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SUN	BOU
Goal Difference	-6	-6
Total Goals	6	7
Assists	4	3
Goals Against	12	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

B. Brobbey · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+240
W. Isidor · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+255
D. Jebbison · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+260
M. Tavernier · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+270
J. Kluivert · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+320
C. Talbi · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+400
D. Brooks · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+425
A. Adli · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+425
T. Meunier · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+475
R. Christie · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BOU
+500
N. Angulo · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+500
M. Fofana · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SUN
+500