La LigaSun 11:30 AM CTLa Rosaleda

Real Sociedad at Málaga

TV · ESPN Deportes

Sun 11:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

54%

RSO 1.37–1.33 MCF

Real Sociedad

4-1-3

Form DWWLL · 12 PF · 15 PA

1.37

Projected

Málaga

0-4-4

Form DLLDD · 4 PF · 13 PA

1.33

RSO 38%Draw 26%MCF 36%

Projected RSO 1.37–1.33 MCF · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

MCF win

49%

39% (no-vig)

Total

2.70

2.5

Gap: +10 pts of win %, +0.20 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

RSO 1.37–1.33 MCF · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
MCF -0.4 off · RSO +0.1 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+0.3 goals to MCF
Record
MCF 0-4-4 · RSO 4-1-3

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Luka Sucic
goals 3
Luka Sucic
goalsleaders 3

Adrián Niño
goals 2
Adrián Niño
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RSO	MCF
Goal Difference	-3	-9
Total Goals	12	4
Assists	9	3
Goals Against	15	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

M. Oyarzabal · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+170
G. Guedes · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+255
G. Carrera · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+280
L. Sucic · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+290
A. Zakharyan · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+425
J. Ochieng · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+425
A. Barrenetxea · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+450
D. Larrubia · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+450
J. Cruz · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+500
C. Soler · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+500
T. Kubo · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RSO
+500
H. Abaida · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · MCF
+700