Overline Sports
PlayPORatLAUnder 3.5NBABKN114MIA1285:53NBACHA90BOS1101:46NBAPHX66SA855:28NBANO69DAL582:52NBACHI76MIL477:49NBADET80MIN676:28MLBMIL1LAD0Bot 6thNCAAFKENN14MOST14Q3 6:01NCAAFWKU10SHSU3HalftimeNHLMTL3WSH319:26NHLDAL0COL115:05MLSPHI0CHI1HTMLSSEA0DAL048'MLSSKC0NSH348'MLSVAN0STL0HTMLSMIN0COL07'MLSSJ0RSL07'NBADENatLAC10:30 PM EDTMLSATXatLAFC10:30 PM EDTMLSHOUatSD10:30 PM EDTWTAMARatMIA11:00 PM EDTWTADIAatKAR11:00 PM EDTATPSWatHS12:00 AM EDTWTAMAJatIVA12:00 AM EDTWTAGUOatELI12:30 AM EDTWTAHSatKS12:30 AM EDTWTASONatJAS1:30 AM EDTWTAEGatDS2:00 AM EDTATPALEatART2:30 AM EDTWTABMatQY3:00 AM EDTWTAJELatLEY3:30 AM EDTWTANOatSW3:30 AM EDTWTANURatAND4:00 AM EDTWTABTatHM4:30 AM EDTWTAKLatHM5:00 AM EDTWTALAUatLUC5:30 AM EDTATPALEatALE6:00 AM EDTWTAMARatTEO6:00 AM EDTWTABSatDM6:00 AM EDTWTAMATatDAL6:00 AM EDTWTARALatLEY6:00 AM EDTWTABMatGS6:30 AM EDTWTAIGAatASH7:00 AM EDTATPPZatMO7:30 AM EDTWTAJOEatTAM7:30 AM EDTWTAVIKatDOM7:30 AM EDTWTADWatPS7:30 AM EDTWTAFRAatFRA7:30 AM EDTWTABZatCL7:30 AM EDTWTAJANatANN8:30 AM EDTWTAZPatMZ9:00 AM EDTWTACLAatMAT9:00 AM EDTWTAMPatFS9:00 AM EDTWTAREBatANE9:30 AM EDTWTALEAatANO10:30 AM EDTWTAEZatJR10:30 AM EDTWTABIAatANT1:00 PM EDT
Board/NFL
NFLSun, 4:25 PM EDTArrowhead Stadium

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

10/18 - 4:25 PM EDT · CBS

Computer pick · Spread
LAC +8.5
55%

LAC 17.09–25.67 KC

Grok Expert · K. Walker III Under 88.5 rush yds

-110
Los Angeles Chargers
0-5 · L5 · computer pick
84 PF · 129 PA
17.09
Projected
Kansas City Chiefs
4-0 · W4
118 PF · 77 PA
25.67
LAC 26%KC 74%

Projected LAC 17.09–25.67 KC

DraftKingstap to log
ML
Spread
Total

The model

How this number was built

LAC 17.09–25.67 KC · Medium confidence

Power index (FPI/BPI) plus shrunk attack/defense, blended with the posted market.

  • Power index
    KC +4.3 vs LAC -1.2 · pred margin +8.6
  • Attack / defense
    KC +3.4 off · LAC -3.2 off, shrunk 40%
  • Home field
    +2.4 pts to KC
  • Record
    KC 4-0 · LAC 0-5
  • Market prior
    Blended 69% toward KC -8.5 / total 42.5
Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

  • Justin Herbert
    Pass 85/143, 937 YDS, 5 TD, 7 INT
  • Omarion Hampton
    Rush 73 CAR, 271 YDS, 3 TD
  • Ladd McConkey
    Rec 12 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD
  • Patrick Mahomes
    Pass 82/128, 1037 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT
  • Kenneth Walker III
    Rush 87 CAR, 537 YDS, 4 TD
  • Travis Kelce
    Rec 16 REC, 246 YDS, 2 TD

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

LACKC
Points Per Game16.829.5
Total Yards315.6421.5
Yards Passing187.4259.3
Yards Rushing128.2162.3
Points Allowed Per Game25.819.3
Yards Allowed323.6321.8
Pass Yards Allowed205.0229.0
Rush Yards Allowed118.692.8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Grok ExpertComputer pick

K. Walker III Under 88.5 rush yds

-11062%

Rushing yards · DraftKings

  • T. Kelce anytime TD
    Anytime TD · KC
    -110
    63%
  • P. Mahomes anytime TD
    Anytime TD · KC
    -110
    63%
  • K. Walker III anytime TD
    Anytime TD · KC
    -110
    63%
  • J. Herbert Over 192.5 pass yds
    Passing yards · LAC
    -110
    61%
  • P. Mahomes Over 226.5 pass yds
    Passing yards · KC
    -110
    58%
  • P. Mahomes Over 30.5 att
    Pass attempts · KC
    -110
    53%
  • J. Herbert Over 17.5 cmp
    Completions · LAC
    -110
    53%
  • J. Herbert Over 0.5 pass TD
    Passing TDs · LAC
    -110
    52%
  • K. Walker III Under 18.5 car
    Carries · KC
    -110
    52%
  • J. Herbert no TD
    Anytime TD · LAC
    -110
    52%
  • L. McConkey no TD
    Anytime TD · LAC
    -110
    52%