La LigaSun 7:00 AM CTEl Sadar

Racing Santander at Osasuna

TV · ESPN+

Sun 7:00 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

55%

RAC 1.73–2.05 OSA

Racing Santander

2-2-4

Form DLLWL · 13 PF · 23 PA

1.73

Projected

Osasuna

2-2-4

Form DDLLL · 8 PF · 18 PA

2.05

RAC 33%Draw 21%OSA 46%

Projected RAC 1.73–2.05 OSA · most likely 1–2

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

OSA win

56%

64% (no-vig)

Total

3.78

2.5

Gap: -7 pts of win %, +1.28 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,598 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1962 vs old model 0.2044 vs closing line 0.1912. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

RAC 1.73–2.05 OSA · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
OSA -0.2 off · RAC +0.2 off, shrunk 50%
Home field
+0.3 goals to OSA
Record
OSA 2-2-4 · RAC 2-2-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Yassir Zabiri
goals 7
Yassir Zabiri
goalsleaders 7

Ante Budimir
goals 6
Ante Budimir
goalsleaders 6

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	RAC	OSA
Goal Difference	-10	-10
Total Goals	13	8
Assists	4	4
Goals Against	23	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

Y. Zabiri · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAC
+170
J. Dubasin · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+275
E. Barja · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+320
I. Luque · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAC
+425
J. Moncayola · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+900
A. Catena · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+1000
M. Gueye · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAC
+1000
A. Osambela · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+1100
M. Prati · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAC
+1300
A. Bretones · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+1300
M. Echegoyen · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · OSA
+1500
J. Salinas · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · RAC
+2500