Arsenal at Nottingham Forest
TV · Peacock
ARS 1.39–1.10 NFO
Projected ARS 1.39–1.10 NFO · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: +24 pts of win %, -0.02 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2023 vs old model 0.2081 vs closing line 0.1952. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
ARS 1.39–1.10 NFO · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseNFO -0.3 off · ARS +0.2 off, shrunk 43%
- Home field+0.3 goals to NFO
- RecordNFO 1-2-3 · ARS 5-0-1
Season leaders
- Bukayo Sakagoals 3
- Bukayo Sakagoalsleaders 3
- Dan Ndoyegoals 2
- Dan Ndoyegoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| ARS | NFO | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 5 | -3 |
| Total Goals | 10 | 5 |
| Assists | 8 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 8 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- K. Havertz · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+140
- B. Saka · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+190
- E. Eze · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+290
- N. Madueke · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+300
- M. Dowman · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+300
- M. Gibbs-White · Anytime goalAnytime goal · NFO+370
- M. Merino · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+390
- C. Wood · Anytime goalAnytime goal · NFO+400
- L. Delap · Anytime goalAnytime goal · NFO+400
- A. Kalimuendo · Anytime goalAnytime goal · NFO+425
- B. Guimarães · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+450
- D. Rice · Anytime goalAnytime goal · ARS+650