BundesligaSun 10:30 AM CTBORUSSIA-PARK

TSG Hoffenheim at Borussia Mönchengladbach

TV · Fandango

Sun 10:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

68%

TSG 2.21–1.93 BMG

TSG Hoffenheim

1-0-4

Form DLLLW · 9 PF · 13 PA

2.21

Projected

Borussia Mönchengladbach

0-0-5

Form DLLLL · 7 PF · 18 PA

1.93

TSG 45%Draw 20%BMG 35%

Projected TSG 2.21–1.93 BMG · most likely 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

BMG win

45%

41% (no-vig)

Total

4.14

3.5

Gap: +4 pts of win %, +0.64 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,269 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2008 vs old model 0.2095 vs closing line 0.1958. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

TSG 2.21–1.93 BMG · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
BMG -0.1 off · TSG +0.1 off, shrunk 38%
Home field
+0.3 goals to BMG
Record
BMG 0-0-5 · TSG 1-0-4

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Adam Daghim
goals 2
Adam Daghim
goalsleaders 2

Hugo Bolin
goals 2
Hugo Bolin
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	TSG	BMG
Goal Difference	-4	-11
Total Goals	9	7
Assists	8	4
Goals Against	13	18

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

A. Kramaric · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+150
F. Asllani · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+170
T. Kleindienst · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BMG
+175
A. Hlozek · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+190
I. Lidberg · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BMG
+200
T. Lemperle · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+200
A. Daghim · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+215
M. Moerstedt · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · TSG
+215
S. Machino · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BMG
+270
H. Bolin · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BMG
+275
R. Hack · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BMG
+300
F. Honorat · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · BMG
+330