BundesligaSun 8:30 AM CTBayArena

SC Freiburg at Bayer Leverkusen

TV · Fandango

Sun 8:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 3.5

59%

SCF 2.01–1.98 B04

SC Freiburg

4-1-0

Form DWDWW · 14 PF · 4 PA

2.01

Projected

Bayer Leverkusen

3-1-1

Form DWWWD · 14 PF · 8 PA

1.98

SCF 40%Draw 21%B04 39%

Projected SCF 2.01–1.98 B04 · most likely 2–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

B04 win

49%

74% (no-vig)

Total

3.98

3.5

Gap: -24 pts of win %, +0.48 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,269 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2008 vs old model 0.2095 vs closing line 0.1958. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

SCF 2.01–1.98 B04 · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
B04 +0.5 off · SCF +0.5 off, shrunk 38%
Home field
+0.3 goals to B04
Record
B04 3-1-1 · SCF 4-1-0

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Yuito Suzuki
goals 4
Yuito Suzuki
goalsleaders 4

Patrik Schick
goals 5
Patrik Schick
goalsleaders 5

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	SCF	B04
Goal Difference	10	6
Total Goals	14	14
Assists	10	10
Goals Against	4	8

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

P. Schick · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+105
M. Terrier · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+240
M. Tillman · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+240
I. Maza · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+245
A. Moreira · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+255
I. Matanovic · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCF
+260
N. Tella · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+300
J. Hofmann · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+320
K. Goto · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCF
+370
V. Grifo · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCF
+390
D. Scherhant · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · SCF
+450
M. Culbreath · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · B04
+500