Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians
TV · TBS
TB 3.99–2.86 CLE
Data-Driven Pick · D. Rasmussen Under 1.5 ER
Projected TB 3.99–2.86 CLE · most likely 3–2
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Clear · 47° · 13.9 mph
Model vs market
Gap: -0 pts of win %, +1.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023–2026, 9,733 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2448 vs old model 0.2486. No free archive of MLB closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. A plate-appearance model (team batting vs starter/bullpen rates through a base-out run-expectancy solve) was tested and didn't beat this one, so it is not used.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: TB vs CLE
The model
How this number was built
TB 3.99–2.86 CLE · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. runs +0.16 vs +0.56 · SP FIP 3.23 vs 3.26 · model CLE 3.7–4.0 TB
- Home field+0.1 runs to CLE
- RecordCLE 85-78 · TB 99-64
- Market priorBlended 70% toward TB -128 / total 6.5
Probable pitchers
Season leaders
Chandler SimpsonAVG .306
Junior CamineroHR 42- Junior CamineroRBI 101
- Junior Camineromlbrating 630.8
Chase DeLauterAVG .287
Angel MartinezHR 18
Brayan RocchioRBI 73- Chase DeLautermlbrating 465.5
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| TB | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| Batting | ||
| R | 736 | 678 |
| H | 1405 | 1291 |
| RBI | 700 | 650 |
| HR | 169 | 162 |
| BB | 514 | 574 |
| K | 1145 | 1271 |
| SB | 164 | 146 |
| 2B | 230 | 249 |
| 3B | 22 | 16 |
| AB | 5444 | 5410 |
| AVG | .258 | .239 |
| OBP | .326 | .316 |
| SLG | .402 | .380 |
| OPS | .728 | .696 |
| SF | 42 | 45 |
| HBP | 58 | 58 |
| CS | 54 | 31 |
| XBH | 421 | 427 |
| PA | 6106 | 6117 |
| P | 22987 | 24066 |
| TB | 2186 | 2058 |
| GIDP | 111 | 98 |
| SH | 45 | 28 |
| IBB | 27 | 14 |
| Pitching | ||
| IP | 1443.0 | 1437.2 |
| H | 1235 | 1286 |
| R | 650 | 667 |
| ER | 594 | 602 |
| BB | 409 | 530 |
| K | 1322 | 1530 |
| HR | 201 | 175 |
| P | 22561 | 24014 |
| WHIP | 1.14 | 1.26 |
| ERA | 3.70 | 3.77 |
| TBF | 5939 | 6084 |
| WP | 43 | 57 |
| BK | 3 | 2 |
| BH | 52 | 74 |
| HLD | 116 | 117 |
| SV | 58 | 46 |
| BLSV | 19 | 18 |
| W | 98 | 85 |
| L | 64 | 77 |
| IR | 192 | 261 |
| IRS | 62 | 74 |
| Fielding | ||
| E | 92 | 86 |
| DP | 230 | 249 |
| A | 1275 | 1262 |
| PO | 4329 | 4313 |
| PB | 6 | 8 |
| CS | 54 | 31 |
| SBA | 164 | 146 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- D. Rasmussen · Earned runs · 1.5Earned runs · TB-115
- D. Rasmussen · Hits allowed · 4.5Hits allowed · TB-108
- P. Messick · Hits allowed · 4.5Hits allowed · CLE-116
- D. Rasmussen · Strikeouts · 5.5Strikeouts · TB-120
- P. Messick · Earned runs · 1.5Earned runs · CLE-106
- P. Messick · Strikeouts · 4.5Strikeouts · CLE-114