Serie ASun 5:30 AM CTStadio Friuli

Lecce at Udinese

TV · Paramount+

Sun 5:30 AM CT

Computer pick · Total

Under 2.5

54%

LEC 1.11–1.60 UDI

Lecce

2-0-4

Form DLWLL · 6 PF · 12 PA

1.11

Projected

Udinese

1-1-4

Form DLLLW · 9 PF · 13 PA

1.60

LEC 26%Draw 25%UDI 49%

Projected LEC 1.11–1.60 UDI · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Spread

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

UDI win

60%

71% (no-vig)

Total

3.13

2.5

Gap: -11 pts of win %, +0.63 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

LEC 1.11–1.60 UDI · Medium confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
UDI +0.1 off · LEC -0.2 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to UDI
Record
UDI 1-1-4 · LEC 2-0-4
Market prior
Blended 68% toward UDI -130 / total 2.5

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Lassana Coulibaly
goals 2
Lassana Coulibaly
goalsleaders 2

Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
goals 3
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LEC	UDI
Goal Difference	-6	-4
Total Goals	6	9
Assists	5	6
Goals Against	12	13

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

K. Davis · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · UDI
+180
J. Ekkelenkamp · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · UDI
+245
N. Stulic · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEC
+350
W. Geubbels · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEC
+380
O. Gandelman · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEC
+400
L. Jovanovic · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · UDI
+425
S. Pierotti · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEC
+425
G. Chakvetadze · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · UDI
+475
S. Lovric · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · UDI
+500
Joel Monteiro · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEC
+500
M. Berisha · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LEC
+650
O. Solet · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · UDI
+750