Columbus Crew at FC Cincinnati
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CLB 2.15–2.26 CIN
Projected CLB 2.15–2.26 CIN · most likely 2–2
Model vs market
Gap: -0 pts of win %, +0.91 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022–2026, 2,507 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2199 vs old model 0.2227 vs closing line 0.2119. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match (goals only, as backtested), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
CLB 2.15–2.26 CIN · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseCIN +0.6 off · CLB +0.0 off, shrunk 78%
- Home field+0.3 goals to CIN
- RecordCIN 9-9-10 · CLB 9-5-15
Season leaders
- Brais Méndezgoals 5
- Brais Méndezgoalsleaders 5
- Kévin Denkeygoals 17
- Kévin Denkeygoalsleaders 17
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| CLB | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -3 | -8 |
| Total Goals | 44 | 60 |
| Assists | 25 | 44 |
| Goals Against | 47 | 68 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- A. Zaroury · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CLB+390
- D. Doudera · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CIN+650
- T. Malacia · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CIN+750
- J. Malatini · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CIN+950
- S. Moreira · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CLB+2200
- E. Bailly · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CLB+2800