Ligue 1Sun 1:45 PM CTGroupama Stadium

Nice at Lyon

TV · beIn Sports

Sun 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

52%

NICE 0.68–1.69 LYON

Nice

2-2-2

Form DWLDL · 5 PF · 7 PA

0.68

Projected

Lyon

3-2-1

Form DLWWD · 11 PF · 4 PA

1.69

NICE 15%Draw 24%LYON 62%

Projected NICE 0.68–1.69 LYON · most likely 0–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

LYON win

73%

66% (no-vig)

Total

2.37

2.5

Gap: +8 pts of win %, -0.13 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

NICE 0.68–1.69 LYON · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
LYON +0.2 off · NICE -0.2 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to LYON
Record
LYON 3-2-1 · NICE 2-2-2

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Jonathan Clauss
goals 1
Jonathan Clauss
goalsleaders 1

Ernest Nuamah
goals 3
Ernest Nuamah
goalsleaders 3

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	NICE	LYON
Goal Difference	-2	7
Total Goals	5	11
Assists	3	9
Goals Against	7	4

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

P. Sulc · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+185
E. Nuamah · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+235
K. Nakamura · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+250
K. Boudache · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+265
S. Diop · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+280
N. Nartey · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+285
C. Tolisso · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+310
G. Hein · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+320
I. Jansson · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+320
K. Merah · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+360
A. Hamdani · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LYON
+360
E. Pereira · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · NICE
+500