Como at Fiorentina
TV · Paramount+
COMO 1.71–1.26 FIO
Projected COMO 1.71–1.26 FIO · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: +2 pts of win %, +0.47 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
COMO 1.71–1.26 FIO · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseFIO -0.1 off · COMO +0.1 off, shrunk 43%
- Home field+0.3 goals to FIO
- RecordFIO 1-1-4 · COMO 3-2-1
Season leaders
- Assane Diaogoals 2
- Assane Diaogoalsleaders 2
- Franco Mastantuonogoals 3
- Franco Mastantuonogoalsleaders 3
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| COMO | FIO | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | 3 | -7 |
| Total Goals | 9 | 7 |
| Assists | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 6 | 14 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- A. Douvikas · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+165
- M. Pellegrino · Anytime goalAnytime goal · FIO+230
- N. Paz · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+235
- J. Addai · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+270
- M. Baturina · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+360
- F. Mastantuono · Anytime goalAnytime goal · FIO+370
- M. Caqueret · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+390
- A. Njie · Anytime goalAnytime goal · FIO+425
- A. Lahdo · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+425
- L. Da Cunha · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+500
- W. Gnonto · Anytime goalAnytime goal · FIO+500
- L. Milla · Anytime goalAnytime goal · COMO+650