AJ Auxerre at Le Havre AC
AUX 1.11–1.72 HAC
Projected AUX 1.11–1.72 HAC · most likely 1–1
Model vs market
Gap: +6 pts of win %, +0.34 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,352 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.2062 vs old model 0.2122 vs closing line 0.2013. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.
The model
How this number was built
AUX 1.11–1.72 HAC · Low confidence
Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Attack / defenseHAC -0.3 off · AUX -0.0 off, shrunk 43%
- Home field+0.3 goals to HAC
- RecordHAC 0-2-4 · AUX 2-0-4
Season leaders
- Cameron Archergoals 4
- Cameron Archergoalsleaders 4
- Mbwana Samattagoals 2
- Mbwana Samattagoalsleaders 2
Team stats
Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.
| AUX | HAC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal Difference | -8 | -4 |
| Total Goals | 8 | 4 |
| Assists | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 16 | 8 |
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- J. Maja · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HAC+195
- C. Archer · Anytime goalAnytime goal · AUX+215
- R. Fofana · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HAC+225
- R. Ndiaye · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HAC+320
- R. Faivre · Anytime goalAnytime goal · AUX+330
- F. Oppegard · Anytime goalAnytime goal · AUX+650
- N. Ahamada · Anytime goalAnytime goal · AUX+850
- S. Diomande · Anytime goalAnytime goal · AUX+850
- S. Ebonog · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HAC+1000
- L. Sy · Anytime goalAnytime goal · AUX+1200
- J. Mwanga · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HAC+1200
- D. Mosengo · Anytime goalAnytime goal · HAC+1200