Serie ASun 1:45 PM CTAllianz Stadium

Lazio at Juventus

TV · Paramount+

Sun 1:45 PM CT

Computer pick · Total

Over 2.5

53%

LAZ 1.30–1.34 JUV

Lazio

5-1-0

Form DWDWW · 11 PF · 4 PA

1.30

Projected

Juventus

3-2-1

Form DDWWL · 9 PF · 5 PA

1.34

LAZ 36%Draw 26%JUV 38%

Projected LAZ 1.30–1.34 JUV · most likely 1–1

DraftKingstap to log

Total

Model vs market

Our model

DraftKings

JUV win

51%

75% (no-vig)

Total

2.64

2.5

Gap: -24 pts of win %, +0.14 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.

Backtest 2022-23 to 2026-27, 1,580 games, 1X2 ranked probability score (lower is better): model v2 0.1949 vs old model 0.2019 vs closing line 0.1898. New ratings: attack/defence goal ratings updated after every match, using goals and shots on target (ESPN box scores), with a Dixon–Coles draw correction. Better than the old record-based model in every league and every test season; the closing line (Pinnacle, via football-data.co.uk) is still more accurate, which is why the final projection leans on the market.

The model

How this number was built

LAZ 1.30–1.34 JUV · Low confidence

Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.

Attack / defense
JUV +0.1 off · LAZ +0.3 off, shrunk 43%
Home field
+0.3 goals to JUV
Record
JUV 3-2-1 · LAZ 5-1-0

Full write-up of the model

Season leaders

Davide Frattesi
goals 3
Davide Frattesi
goalsleaders 3

Bremer
goals 2
Bremer
goalsleaders 2

Team stats

Every official team number from this game. The better side is highlighted.

	LAZ	JUV
Goal Difference	7	4
Total Goals	11	9
Assists	9	7
Goals Against	4	5

Player props

The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.

R. Kolo Muani · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+170
N. Woltemade · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+190
E. Zhegrova · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+200
N. González · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+240
W. McKennie · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+370
A. Pinamonti · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+400
G. Isaksen · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+500
M. Cancellieri · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+500
D. Luiz · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+500
M. Zaccagni · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · LAZ
+550
P. Sarr · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+550
T. Koopmeiners · Anytime goal
Anytime goal · JUV
+650