Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild
TV · ESPN+
CBJ 2.58–3.87 MIN
Data-Driven Pick · K. Kaprizov Over 1.5 pts
Projected CBJ 2.58–3.87 MIN · most likely 2–3
Model vs market
Gap: -7 pts of win %, -0.29 total. The projection shown above blends the model with this line.
Backtest 2023-24 to 2025-26, 3,936 games, win-probability Brier (lower is better): model v2 0.2382 vs old model 0.2430. No free archive of NHL closing lines, so we can't benchmark against the market yet. Win probability now also uses team expected goals from a shot-level model on official NHL play-by-play (distance, angle, shot type, strength): Brier 0.2381 → 0.2370 over 2023-24 to 2025-26, better in each season. Totals unchanged.
Advanced analytics
Matchup edge: CBJ vs MIN
The model
How this number was built
CBJ 2.58–3.87 MIN · Medium confidence
overline-model-v2: opponent-adjusted ratings + matchup features. Independent Poisson scorelines from shrunk attack/defense ratings, blended with the market.
- Opponent-adjusted ratings (model v2)Adj. goals +0.35 vs -0.11 · adj. shots -0.8 vs -0.7 · model MIN 3.3–2.9 CBJ
- Home field+0.2 goals to MIN
- RecordMIN 5-2-1 · CBJ 4-3
- Market priorBlended 81% toward MIN -192 / total 6.5
Player props
The DraftKings line is the starting point. A prop moves off it only with a real player rate, and only at -120 or longer.
- K. Kaprizov · Points · 1.5Points · MIN+150
- K. Kaprizov · Assists · 0.5Assists · MIN-105
- Q. Hughes · Points · 1.5Points · MIN+150
- Q. Hughes · Shots · 2.5Shots · MIN+120
- K. Kaprizov · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIN-105
- C. Coyle · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CBJ+370
- Q. Hughes · Anytime goalAnytime goal · MIN+370
- K. Johnson · Anytime goalAnytime goal · CBJ+390